过去 26 年艾滋病病毒/艾滋病趋势以及预测埃塞俄比亚到 2020 年实现 90-90-90 艾滋病预防目标：时间序列分析。

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis.

机构信息

Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wolkite University, Wolkite, Ethiopia.

Department of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wolkite University, Wolkite, Ethiopia.

出版信息

BMC Infect Dis. 2018 Jul 11;18(1):320. doi: 10.1186/s12879-018-3214-6.

BACKGROUND

HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90-90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90-90-90 target.

METHODS

We used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90-90-90 targets.

RESULT

Since 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88% of them are on treatment and 86% of people on treatment have viral suppression. As a result, AIDS-related death declined by 77 and 79% among all age and children respectively. By 2020, 79% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, of which 96-99% of HIV infected people will be on ART and more than 86% will have viral suppression.

CONCLUSION

After remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults. With the current trend, Ethiopia will achieve the second and third 90% HIV targets, while the first target is not achievable and without achieving this overarching goal control of the epidemic will not be achieved. Therefore due attention is needed to avert the current epidemics and diagnosis of cases.

背景

艾滋病毒感染仍是具有公共卫生重要性的流行疾病，流行率为 1.1%，发病率为 0.33/1000 人，属于低强度混合流行。埃塞俄比亚已经采用了到 2020 年实现 90-90-90 的目标，但尚未对其进展情况进行评估。因此，本研究旨在评估过去 26 年艾滋病毒感染的趋势，并预测实现 90-90-90 目标的情况。

方法

我们使用了联合国艾滋病规划署数据库中 1990 年至 2016 年艾滋病毒/艾滋病指标数据的汇总数据。使用 excel 和 STATA 对数据进行了分析。绘制出最适合回归的趋势线，估计了年度变化，并预测了艾滋病毒检测率、抗逆转录病毒治疗覆盖率和病毒抑制指标的未来值，并将其与 90-90-90 目标进行了比较。

结果

自 1995 年以来，新感染病例下降了 81%，自 2002 年以来，艾滋病毒病例数下降了 35.5%。然而，经过几十年的显著下降后，自 2008 年以来，艾滋病毒发病率开始上升 10%，每年新诊断的感染人数在所有年龄段增加了 36%，在成年人中增加了一倍。在 6 年内，所有年龄段的抗逆转录病毒治疗覆盖率增加了 90%，孕妇增加了三倍。全国范围内，67%的艾滋病毒感染者知晓自己的艾滋病毒状况，其中 88%的人正在接受治疗，86%的治疗者的病毒得到了抑制。因此，艾滋病相关死亡人数在所有年龄段和儿童中分别下降了 77%和 79%。到 2020 年，79%的艾滋病毒感染者将知晓其艾滋病毒状况，其中 96-99%的艾滋病毒感染者将接受抗逆转录病毒治疗，超过 86%的感染者将病毒得到抑制。