School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
School of Biology and Environmental Science, Earth Institute, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
J Anim Ecol. 2018 Nov;87(6):1560-1572. doi: 10.1111/1365-2656.12881. Epub 2018 Aug 6.
Changes in species distributions through local extinction and colonization events are a major consequence of climate change. The mechanisms underlying these processes, however, are yet to be fully understood. We investigate the effects of climatic suitability and local rarity on local extinction and colonization of British birds. We test the hypothesis that local extinction and colonization on decadal scales are driven by both climatic suitability and the prevalence of the species within an area and that the balance between these two is affected by species traits. We use spatially explicit conditional autoregressive models to determine the effect size of local rarity and climatic suitability (extracted from climate envelope models) on local extinction and colonization events. We then use phylogenetically constrained, generalized least-square models to estimate the association of extinction and colonization predictors with body mass, clutch size and national range of each species. Both local rarity and climatic suitability of an area contributed to local extinctions and colonizations, but the importance of these predictors varied between species. This interspecific variation was explained, in part, by species traits, in particular national range, which influenced the importance of local rarity and climatic suitability to both local extinction and colonization. These results further our knowledge of the mechanisms underlying changes in species occupancy due to climate change. This can inform predictive models as well as contribute to more focussed avian conservation efforts.
物种分布因局部灭绝和定居事件而发生变化，这是气候变化的主要后果。然而，这些过程背后的机制尚未被完全理解。我们调查了气候适宜性和局部稀有性对英国鸟类局部灭绝和定居的影响。我们检验了这样一个假设，即在数十年的时间尺度上，局部灭绝和定居是由气候适宜性和物种在一个地区的流行程度共同驱动的，而这两个因素之间的平衡受到物种特征的影响。我们使用空间显式条件自回归模型来确定局部稀有性和气候适宜性（从气候包络模型中提取）对局部灭绝和定居事件的影响大小。然后，我们使用系统发育约束的广义最小二乘模型来估计灭绝和定居预测因子与每个物种的体重、巢大小和国家分布范围之间的关联。一个地区的局部稀有性和气候适宜性都对局部灭绝和定居有贡献，但这些预测因子在物种之间的重要性有所不同。这种种间变化部分由物种特征解释，特别是国家分布范围，它影响了局部稀有性和气候适宜性对局部灭绝和定居的重要性。这些结果进一步加深了我们对气候变化导致物种占有变化的机制的理解。这可以为预测模型提供信息，并有助于更有针对性的鸟类保护工作。
