Stubbs Rebecca L, Soltis Douglas E, Cellinese Nico
Florida Museum of Natural History University of Florida Gainesville Florida.
Department of Biology University of Florida Gainesville Florida.
Ecol Evol. 2018 Jun 25;8(14):7164-7177. doi: 10.1002/ece3.4242. eCollection 2018 Jul.
Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold-adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold-adapted including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold-adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.
研究表明，由于气候变化，物种正在经历分布范围收缩和/或向北及向更高海拔移动。在此，我们评估了一组具有相似进化历史的适应寒冷的植物物种的分布如何因气候变暖而变化。我们选择了29种虎耳草科植物，它们代表了北半球的山地和北极生物群落。为了进行此分析，将24755个数据点输入到生态位模型中，以评估当前的基本生态位以及气候变化情景下预测的未来分布范围。对包括北极物种、山地物种和被定义为狭域特有种在内的所有适应寒冷的虎耳草科植物在整个北半球进行了比较。在未来气候变化模型下，72%的物种将占据比目前更小的地理区域。栖息地的这种丧失在北极物种中总体上最为明显，但在局限于山区较高海拔的物种中也很普遍。此外，局限于高海拔的狭域特有种比低海拔的物种更容易受到栖息地丧失的影响。利用一个大型数据集并在全球范围内模拟栖息地适宜性，我们的结果通过实证模拟了气候变暖对适应寒冷物种的威胁。尽管北极和高山生物群落有许多潜在的气候相似性，如寒冷且生长季节短，但我们的结果证实，这些气候中的物种对气候变化有不同的反应且这两个栖息地之间的关键非生物变量也不同。
