Amarasinghe Prabha, Barve Narayani, Kathriarachchi Hashendra, Loiselle Bette, Cellinese Nico
Department of Biology University of Florida Gainesville Florida USA.
Florida Museum of Natural History University of Florida Gainesville Florida USA.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Dec 3;11(24):18196-18215. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8415. eCollection 2021 Dec.
Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, , in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for , and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan . We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land-cover changes on distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species' habitats can be expected as early as 2041-2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.
近期的气候预测表明，岛屿生物群落中生物的分布受到气候变化的严重影响。在此，我们展示了对斯里兰卡一个岛屿上的一个植物类群（此处原文植物类群名称缺失）生态位动态的分析结果，该分析使用了物种分布数据和气候数据。我们旨在确定哪些气候变量解释了当前的分布情况，模拟气候变化如何影响该植物类群适宜栖息地的可获得性，并确定斯里兰卡该植物类群的保护优先区域。我们使用斯里兰卡该植物类群的地理参考分布数据来开发生态位模型，并评估在2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年的六种气候变化情景下当前和未来的潜在分布。我们还叠加了土地覆盖图和保护区地图，并进行了差距分析，以了解土地覆盖变化对该植物类群分布的影响，并提出新的保护区域。发现该植物类群适宜栖息地之间的差异与特有性模式有关。在不同的未来气候情景下，预计特有类群将经历栖息地的转移、增加或丧失。局限于山区的狭域特有植物预计受气候变化影响最大。预测还表明，早在2041 - 2060年就可能出现物种栖息地的变化。差距分析表明，虽然狭域特有类别因其与保护区的重叠而得到了相当程度的保护，但在包含广域特有和非特有该植物类群的斯里兰卡森林中，还需要更多的保护措施。这项研究有助于阐明斯里兰卡该植物类群对全球气候变化的一般响应模式。本研究的数据有助于设计旨在填补该岛屿森林保护空白的措施。
