Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Pavia, via S. Epifanio 14, I-27100 Pavia, Italy.
I.P.L.A., Corso Casale 476, I-10132 Torino, Italy.
Sci Rep. 2016 Jun 27;6:28542. doi: 10.1038/srep28542.
Assisted colonization is one way of facilitating range shifts for species that are restricted in their ability to move in response to climate change. Here we conceptualize and apply a new decision framework for modelling assisted colonization of plant species prior to in situ realization. Three questions were examined: a) Is species translocation useful in a certain area? b) where, and c) how long will it be successful in the future? Applying our framework to Carex foetida in Italy at the core of its distribution and its southern edge revealed that assisted colonization could be successful in short-term (2010-2039) climate conditions, partially in medium (2040-2069) but not in long-term (2070-2099) scenarios. We show that, for some species, it is likely that assisted colonization would be successful in some portions of the recipient site under current and short-term climate conditions, but over the mid- and long-term, climate changes will make species translocation unsuccessful. The proposed decision framework can help identify species that will need different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) when assisted colonization is unlikely to be successful. Furthermore it has broad applicability, as it can support planning of assisted migration in mountainous areas in the face of climate change.
辅助迁移是促进物种分布范围变化的一种方法，这些物种在应对气候变化时移动能力受到限制。在这里，我们概念化并应用了一个新的决策框架，用于在原地实现之前对植物物种的辅助迁移进行建模。我们考察了三个问题：a）在某个特定区域，物种迁移是否有用？b）在哪里，以及 c）未来它将在多长时间内取得成功？将我们的框架应用于意大利分布中心和南部边缘的 Carex foetida 表明，辅助迁移在短期（2010-2039 年）气候条件下可能成功，在中期（2040-2069 年）部分成功，但在长期（2070-2099 年）气候条件下不成功。我们表明，对于某些物种，在当前和短期气候条件下，辅助迁移在受纳区的某些部分可能成功，但在中期和长期，气候变化将使物种迁移不成功。所提出的决策框架可以帮助确定在辅助迁移不太可能成功的情况下需要采取不同保护措施（种子库和/或植物园）的物种。此外，它具有广泛的适用性，因为它可以支持在气候变化面前规划山区的辅助迁移。
