Parker Andrew M, de Bruin Wändi Bruine, Fischhoff Baruch, Weller Joshua
RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
Centre for Decision Research, University of Leeds, UK.
J Behav Decis Mak. 2018 Jul;31(3):380-391. doi: 10.1002/bdm.2059. Epub 2017 Dec 6.
Decision-making competence is the ability to follow normative principles when making decisions. In a longitudinal analysis, we examine the robustness of decision-making competence over time, as measured by two batteries of paper-and-pencil tasks. Participants completed the youth version (Y-DMC) at age 19 and/or the adult version (A-DMC) eleven years later at age 30, as part of a larger longitudinal study. Both measures are comprised of tasks adapted from ones used in experimental studies of decision-making skills. Results supported the robustness of these measures and the usefulness of the construct. Response patterns for Y-DMC were similar to those observed with a smaller initial sample drawn from the same population. Response patterns for A-DMC were similar to those observed with an earlier community sample. Y-DMC and A-DMC were significantly correlated, for participants who completed both measures, 11 years apart, even after controlling for measures of cognitive ability. Nomological validity was observed in correlations of scores on both tests with measures of cognitive ability, cognitive style, and environmental factors with predicted relationships to decision-making competence, including household SES, neighborhood disadvantage, and paternal substance abuse. Higher Y-DMC and A-DMC scores were also associated with lower rates of potentially risky and antisocial behaviors, including adolescent delinquency, cannabis use, and early sexual behavior. Thus, the Y-DMC and A-DMC measures appear to capture a relatively stable, measurable construct that increases with supportive environmental factors and is associated with constructive behaviors.
决策能力是指在做决策时遵循规范性原则的能力。在一项纵向分析中，我们通过两组纸笔任务来衡量决策能力随时间推移的稳健性。作为一项更大规模纵向研究的一部分，参与者在19岁时完成了青少年版（Y-DMC），并在11年后30岁时完成了成人版（A-DMC）。这两种测量方法都包含了从决策技能实验研究中改编而来的任务。结果支持了这些测量方法的稳健性以及该结构的有用性。Y-DMC的反应模式与从同一人群中抽取的较小初始样本所观察到的模式相似。A-DMC的反应模式与早期社区样本所观察到的模式相似。对于相隔11年完成这两种测量的参与者，即使在控制了认知能力测量指标之后，Y-DMC和A-DMC仍显著相关。在两项测试的分数与认知能力、认知风格以及与决策能力具有预测关系的环境因素（包括家庭社会经济地位、邻里劣势和父亲药物滥用）的相关性中观察到了效标效度。较高的Y-DMC和A-DMC分数也与潜在风险和反社会行为的较低发生率相关，包括青少年犯罪、大麻使用和早期性行为。因此，Y-DMC和A-DMC测量方法似乎捕捉到了一个相对稳定、可测量的结构，该结构随着支持性环境因素的增加而增加，并与建设性行为相关。
