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Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8-10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.

Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8-10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.

监测野生哺乳动物种群对威胁性过程的反应是有效保护管理的基础。对于传染病而言尤其如此，因为传染病与其宿主之间可能存在动态且因此不可预测的相互作用。2. 我们研究了一种可传播癌症——袋獾面部肿瘤病（DFTD）对塔斯马尼亚袋獾这一特有物种的长期影响。我们分析了受该病影响地区袋獾的 spotlight 计数和密度趋势。我们研究了可能推动这些趋势的人口统计学参数，并使用空间捕获 - 重捕模型来检验 DFTD 是否影响了家域大小。3. 我们发现，在受 DFTD 影响的地区，袋獾数量平均下降了 77%，并且 spotlight 计数和密度估计值持续出现小幅下降的一致趋势。尽管如此，在九个监测地点中的每一个，袋獾至今仍有留存。在 DFTD 出现 8 - 10 年后，有一个地点的密度出现了尚未得到解释的小幅增加。4. 我们还发现，尽管密度大幅下降，但 DFTD 的患病率并未降低，患病地区仍然以幼年袋獾为主。该疾病的长期影响已部分被 1 岁雌性袋獾早熟繁殖形式的繁殖力增加以及患病地区每只雌性袋獾育幼袋中幼崽数量增多所抵消。DFTD 导致的较低密度并未影响家域大小。5. 尽管经过多代袋獾密度大幅下降，但袋獾面部肿瘤病仍在传播。生活史特征的可塑性减轻了袋獾面部肿瘤病的影响，然而密度的总体趋势仍在持续下降。鉴于此，袋獾面部肿瘤病以及随机事件对该病导致的低密度种群的影响，继续威胁着袋獾。在缺乏管理野生种群疾病方法的情况下，我们主张管理因疾病导致的低种群密度，而非疾病本身。