Stammnitz Maximilian R, Gori Kevin, Murchison Elizabeth P
Transmissible Cancer Group, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Apr 17;11(4):231875. doi: 10.1098/rsos.231875. eCollection 2024 Apr.
Tasmanian devils are endangered by a transmissible cancer known as Tasmanian devil facial tumour 1 (DFT1). A 2020 study by Patton . ( , eabb9772 (doi:10.1126/science.abb9772)) used genome data from DFT1 tumours to produce a dated phylogenetic tree for this transmissible cancer lineage, and thence, using phylodynamics models, to estimate its epidemiological parameters and predict its future trajectory. It concluded that the effective reproduction number for DFT1 had declined to a value of one, and that the disease had shifted from emergence to endemism. We show that the study is based on erroneous mutation calls and flawed methodology, and that its conclusions cannot be substantiated.
袋獾正受到一种名为袋獾面部肿瘤1型（DFT1）的可传播癌症的威胁。帕顿2020年的一项研究（doi:10.1126/science.abb9772）利用DFT1肿瘤的基因组数据，为这个可传播癌症谱系构建了一棵有时间标定的系统发育树，进而使用系统发育动力学模型来估计其流行病学参数并预测其未来发展轨迹。该研究得出结论，DFT1的有效繁殖数已降至1，并且该疾病已从出现阶段转变为地方病阶段。我们表明，该研究基于错误的突变判定和有缺陷的方法，其结论无法得到证实。
