Li Lingdi, Arip Mohammad Affendy, Hong Puah Chin
Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Kota Samarahan, 94300, Malaysia.
Anhui Sanlian University, 230061, Hefei, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 17;15(1):9114. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-92044-2.
This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of the coordinated development between carbon productivity (CP) and high-quality economic development (HQED) across 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021. Using the entropy weight method, coupling coordination degree (CCD), kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatial econometric models, the research identifies several key findings: first, a coupling and coordination relationship characterized by mutual influence and restraint exists between carbon productivity and high-quality economic development. Both carbon productivity and high-quality economic development, along with their coupling coordination degree, have exhibited continuous growth, demonstrating a spatial distribution pattern of "higher in the east than in the west, and higher in the south than in the north," accompanied by expanding spatial concentration and pronounced regional disparities. Second, the global Moran's I for the coupling coordination degree is positive, indicating significant spatial effects between carbon productivity and high-quality economic development. The LISA map highlights that high-high clusters are concentrated in the economically advanced eastern coastal areas, while low-low clusters are predominantly located in underdeveloped central and western regions and energy-dependent heavy industrial provinces. Third, the spatial effects of coupling coordination degree are influenced by factors such as economic development level, urbanization, technological progress, environmental regulation, the proportion of the secondary industry, and marketization level. The significance of these factors varies in the decomposition effect. Finally, this study provides policy recommendations. Within the framework of China's "dual-carbon" goals, promoting the coupling and coordinated development of carbon productivity and high-quality economic development, while fostering balanced regional growth, holds substantial practical importance.
本研究考察了2008年至2021年中国30个省份碳生产率（CP）与高质量经济发展（HQED）协调发展的时空演变。运用熵权法、耦合协调度（CCD）、核密度估计、空间自相关分析和空间计量模型，研究得出了几个关键发现：第一，碳生产率与高质量经济发展之间存在相互影响、相互制约的耦合协调关系。碳生产率、高质量经济发展及其耦合协调度均呈现持续增长态势，呈现出“东高西低、南高北低”的空间分布格局，且空间集聚不断扩大，区域差异明显。第二，耦合协调度的全局莫兰指数为正，表明碳生产率与高质量经济发展之间存在显著的空间效应。局部空间自相关（LISA）图显示，高高聚类集中在经济发达的东部沿海地区，而低低聚类主要位于欠发达的中西部地区和能源依赖型重工业省份。第三，耦合协调度的空间效应受经济发展水平、城市化、技术进步、环境规制、第二产业比重和市场化水平等因素影响。这些因素在分解效应中的显著性各不相同。最后，本研究提出了政策建议。在中国“双碳”目标框架下，推动碳生产率与高质量经济发展的耦合协调发展，同时促进区域均衡增长，具有重要的现实意义。
