Chi Guangqing, Wang Donghui
Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, and Social Science Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, 112E Armsby, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
Popul Space Place. 2018 Jul;24(5). doi: 10.1002/psp.2129. Epub 2017 Dec 21.
Population projection is essential to governments, businesses, and research communities for many purposes. Although projection performance is often evaluated, we know very little about what factors affect projection accuracy. It is important to understand these factors in order to utilize the projections knowledgeably. This study fills this gap in the literature by comprehensively investigating the possible factors associated with population projection accuracy in 2010 for the continental US counties. The results indicate that the counties whose populations are more predictable tend to be desirable places-places with abundant employment opportunities, reliable public transportation infrastructure, easy access to work, and/or high land development potential; their neighboring counties tend to have a well-educated population and a higher income level. Also, projection accuracy is highly spatially associated. The findings provide important insights for population projection users to understand the characteristics of counties and their neighboring counties associated with their projection accuracy.
人口预测对于政府、企业和研究团体实现多种目标至关重要。尽管人们经常评估预测表现，但我们对影响预测准确性的因素却知之甚少。了解这些因素对于明智地利用预测结果很重要。本研究通过全面调查与2010年美国大陆各县人口预测准确性相关的可能因素，填补了文献中的这一空白。结果表明，人口更具可预测性的县往往是理想之地——拥有丰富就业机会、可靠公共交通基础设施、工作通勤便利和/或土地开发潜力高的地方；其相邻县往往人口受教育程度高且收入水平高。此外，预测准确性在空间上具有高度相关性。这些发现为人口预测使用者提供了重要见解，有助于他们了解与其预测准确性相关的县及其相邻县的特征。
