Murdock S H, Leistritz F L, Hamm R R, Hwang S S, Parpia B
Demography. 1984 Aug;21(3):383-404.
A large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states. Comparisons of the model's projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model's accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.
大量区域经济人口预测模型已被开发出来，但它们的准确性很少得到评估。本文使用1970年的基础数据，对两个州的106个县和553个地区的1980年总人口预测，检验了其中一个此类模型的准确性。将该模型的预测与1980年人口普查数据进行比较，结果显示，各县的平均绝对差异百分比为10%，各地区为14%。此外，该模型的准确性与其他替代预测系统相当。当排除人口少于1000的地区的预测时，差异大幅减少。经济人口模型似乎非常有用，值得进一步关注。
