Scheingraber Christoph, Käser Martin A
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany.
Munich Re, Corporate Underwriting, Munich, Germany.
Risk Anal. 2019 Mar;39(3):695-712. doi: 10.1111/risa.13176. Epub 2018 Aug 24.
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is a well-established method in the insurance industry for modeling portfolio losses from earthquake events. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown. However, so far, location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. In this article, we propose a novel framework for treatment of location uncertainty. As a case study, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling typical real-world cases were created. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on the variability of loss frequency estimations. The results indicate that due to loss aggregation effects and spatial hazard variability, location uncertainty in isolation and in conjunction with ground motion uncertainty can induce significant variability to probabilistic loss results, especially for portfolios with a small number of risks. After quantifying its effect, we conclude that location uncertainty should not be neglected when assessing probabilistic seismic risk, but should be treated stochastically and the resulting variability should be visualized and interpreted carefully.
概率地震风险分析是保险行业中一种成熟的方法，用于模拟地震事件造成的投资组合损失。在这种情况下，精确的暴露位置往往是未知的。然而，到目前为止，位置不确定性尚未成为大量研究的焦点。在本文中，我们提出了一个处理位置不确定性的新框架。作为一个案例研究，创建了大量类似于典型现实世界案例的合成投资组合。我们研究了投资组合特征，如价值分布、投资组合规模或坐标未知的风险项目比例，对损失频率估计变异性的影响。结果表明，由于损失聚集效应和空间灾害变异性，孤立的位置不确定性以及与地面运动不确定性相结合，会给概率损失结果带来显著的变异性，尤其是对于风险数量较少的投资组合。在量化其影响后，我们得出结论，在评估概率地震风险时，位置不确定性不应被忽视，而应进行随机处理，并且由此产生的变异性应仔细地可视化和解释。
