Suppr超能文献

非凡的主张需要非凡的证据吗?

Do Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence?

作者信息

Deming David

机构信息

College of Arts & Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 USA.

出版信息

Philosophia (Ramat Gan). 2016;44(4):1319-1331. doi: 10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7. Epub 2016 Oct 20.

Abstract

In 1979 astronomer Carl Sagan popularized the aphorism "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (ECREE). But Sagan never defined the term "extraordinary." Ambiguity in what constitutes "extraordinary" has led to misuse of the aphorism. ECREE is commonly invoked to discredit research dealing with scientific anomalies, and has even been rhetorically employed in attempts to raise doubts concerning mainstream scientific hypotheses that have substantive empirical support. The origin of ECREE lies in eighteenth-century Enlightenment criticisms of miracles. The most important of these was Hume's essay . Hume precisely defined an extraordinary claim as one that is directly contradicted by a massive amount of existing evidence. For a claim to qualify as extraordinary there must exist overwhelming empirical data of the exact antithesis. Extraordinary evidence is not a separate category or type of evidence--it is an extraordinarily large number of observations. Claims that are merely novel or those which violate human consensus are not properly characterized as extraordinary. Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.

摘要

1979年,天文学家卡尔·萨根推广了格言“非凡的主张需要非凡的证据”(ECREE)。但萨根从未定义过“非凡”一词。“非凡”的构成存在模糊性,导致了这句格言的滥用。ECREE常被用来诋毁处理科学异常现象的研究,甚至被用于试图对有大量实证支持的主流科学假设提出质疑。ECREE的起源在于18世纪启蒙运动对奇迹的批判。其中最重要的是休谟的文章。休谟将非凡的主张精确地定义为与大量现有证据直接矛盾的主张。要使一项主张被认定为非凡,必须存在大量与之完全相反的实证数据。非凡的证据并非是一种单独的证据类别或类型——它是大量的观察结果。仅仅新颖或违背人类共识的主张不能恰当地被描述为非凡。科学并不考虑两种类型的证据。应避免滥用ECREE来压制创新和维持正统观念,因为这必然会阻碍建立可靠知识的科学目标。

相似文献

1
Do Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence?非凡的主张需要非凡的证据吗?
Philosophia (Ramat Gan). 2016;44(4):1319-1331. doi: 10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7. Epub 2016 Oct 20.
4
Looking to Hume for justice: on the utility of Hume's view of justice for American health care reform.
J Med Philos. 1999 Aug;24(4):352-64. doi: 10.1076/jmep.24.4.352.5980.
5
On the origin of Hill's causal criteria.论希尔因果准则的起源。
Epidemiology. 1991 Sep;2(5):367-9. doi: 10.1097/00001648-199109000-00010.
6
The Is-Ought Problem in Practical Ethics.实践伦理学中的“是—应当”问题。
HEC Forum. 2017 Dec;29(4):277-292. doi: 10.1007/s10730-016-9318-8.
7
Hume on suicide.休谟论自杀。
J Med Philos. 1999 Aug;24(4):336-51. doi: 10.1076/jmep.24.4.336.5982.
8
Science and the imagination in the age of reason.理性时代的科学与想象力。
Med Humanit. 2001 Dec;27(2):58-63. doi: 10.1136/mh.27.2.58.
10
PASSCLAIM - Synthesis and review of existing processes.PASSCLAIM - 现有流程的综合与审查。
Eur J Nutr. 2003 Mar;42 Suppl 1:I96-111. doi: 10.1007/s00394-003-1105-z.

引用本文的文献

1
Are There Indeed Spliced Peptides in the Immunopeptidome?免疫肽组中是否确实存在拼接肽?
Mol Cell Proteomics. 2021;20:100099. doi: 10.1016/j.mcpro.2021.100099. Epub 2021 May 20.

本文引用的文献

2
Reproducibility blues.可重复性困境
EMBO J. 2015 Nov 12;34(22):2721-4. doi: 10.15252/embj.201570090. Epub 2015 Nov 4.
6
THE METHOD OF MULTIPLE WORKING HYPOTHESES.多重工作假设法
Science. 1890 Feb 7;15(366):92-6. doi: 10.1126/science.ns-15.366.92.
7
Archaeology: blast in the past?考古学:过去的爆炸?
Nature. 2007 May 17;447(7142):256-7. doi: 10.1038/447256a.
8
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.非凡的主张需要非凡的证据。
J Health Econ. 2005 Sep;24(5):1030-3; discussion 1034-53. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2005.07.001.

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法,用中文像聊天一样搜索,搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐,让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版,准确专业,支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式,支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述,25分钟生成高质量综述,智能提取关键信息,辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验