Deming David
College of Arts & Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 USA.
Philosophia (Ramat Gan). 2016;44(4):1319-1331. doi: 10.1007/s11406-016-9779-7. Epub 2016 Oct 20.
In 1979 astronomer Carl Sagan popularized the aphorism "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (ECREE). But Sagan never defined the term "extraordinary." Ambiguity in what constitutes "extraordinary" has led to misuse of the aphorism. ECREE is commonly invoked to discredit research dealing with scientific anomalies, and has even been rhetorically employed in attempts to raise doubts concerning mainstream scientific hypotheses that have substantive empirical support. The origin of ECREE lies in eighteenth-century Enlightenment criticisms of miracles. The most important of these was Hume's essay . Hume precisely defined an extraordinary claim as one that is directly contradicted by a massive amount of existing evidence. For a claim to qualify as extraordinary there must exist overwhelming empirical data of the exact antithesis. Extraordinary evidence is not a separate category or type of evidence--it is an extraordinarily large number of observations. Claims that are merely novel or those which violate human consensus are not properly characterized as extraordinary. Science does not contemplate two types of evidence. The misuse of ECREE to suppress innovation and maintain orthodoxy should be avoided as it must inevitably retard the scientific goal of establishing reliable knowledge.
1979年,天文学家卡尔·萨根推广了格言“非凡的主张需要非凡的证据”(ECREE)。但萨根从未定义过“非凡”一词。“非凡”的构成存在模糊性,导致了这句格言的滥用。ECREE常被用来诋毁处理科学异常现象的研究,甚至被用于试图对有大量实证支持的主流科学假设提出质疑。ECREE的起源在于18世纪启蒙运动对奇迹的批判。其中最重要的是休谟的文章。休谟将非凡的主张精确地定义为与大量现有证据直接矛盾的主张。要使一项主张被认定为非凡,必须存在大量与之完全相反的实证数据。非凡的证据并非是一种单独的证据类别或类型——它是大量的观察结果。仅仅新颖或违背人类共识的主张不能恰当地被描述为非凡。科学并不考虑两种类型的证据。应避免滥用ECREE来压制创新和维持正统观念,因为这必然会阻碍建立可靠知识的科学目标。