Shanafelt D W, Perrings C A
Rev Sci Tech. 2017 Dec;36(3):839-865. doi: 10.20506/rst.36.3.2719.
The growth in world trade has generated significant benefits to humankind, but it has also generated costs. Among these is an increase in the dispersal of pests and pathogens across the globe. International trade has been implicated in outbreaks of several re-occurring livestock diseases. This paper is focused on the risk of foot and mouth disease (FMD) associated with the international trade in live animals. A model was used to estimate FMD risk as a function of the international trade in live animals, controlling for the biosecurity measures undertaken by importing and exporting countries, and for the presence of endemic FMD reservoirs. It was found that the indirect risks associated with exports may be as great as the direct risks associated with imports. For countries where livestock production occurs in disease-free zones (with or without vaccination), the trade risks vary with both species and trading partner. These findings may assist the targeting of disease risk mitigation activities.
世界贸易的增长给人类带来了巨大利益，但也产生了成本。其中包括害虫和病原体在全球范围内传播的增加。国际贸易与几种反复出现的牲畜疾病的爆发有关。本文重点关注与活畜国际贸易相关的口蹄疫风险。使用一个模型来估计口蹄疫风险，该风险是活畜国际贸易的函数，并控制进出口国家采取的生物安全措施以及地方性口蹄疫疫源地的存在情况。研究发现，与出口相关的间接风险可能与与进口相关的直接风险一样大。对于牲畜生产发生在无病区域（无论是否接种疫苗）的国家，贸易风险因物种和贸易伙伴而异。这些发现可能有助于确定疾病风险缓解活动的目标。
