Shanafelt David W, Perrings C
Centre for Biodiversity, Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR 5321, CNRS and Paul Sabatier University, 2 Route de CNRS, 09200, Moulis, France.
School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
Ecohealth. 2018 Jun;15(2):327-337. doi: 10.1007/s10393-018-1315-8. Epub 2018 Feb 27.
The 2001 UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic marked a change in global FMD management, focusing less on trade isolation than on biosecurity within countries where FMD is endemic. Post 2001 policy calls for the isolation of disease-free zones in FMD-endemic countries, while increasing the opportunities for trade. The impact of the change on disease risk has yet to be tested. In this paper, we estimate an empirical model of disease risk that tests for the impact of trade volumes before and after 2001, controlling for biosecurity measures. In the pre 2001 regime, we find that poor biosecurity was associated with the probability of reporting an outbreak. In the post 2001 regime, the risks changed, with trade being a much greater source of risk. We discuss the trade-off between trade restrictions and biosecurity measures in the management of FMD disease risks.
2001年英国口蹄疫疫情标志着全球口蹄疫管理方式的转变，重点从贸易隔离转向口蹄疫流行国家内部的生物安全。2001年后的政策要求在口蹄疫流行国家划分无病区，同时增加贸易机会。这一变化对疾病风险的影响尚未得到检验。在本文中，我们估计了一个疾病风险实证模型，检验2001年前后贸易量的影响，并控制生物安全措施。在2001年之前的体制下，我们发现生物安全措施不力与报告疫情的可能性相关。在2001年之后的体制下，风险发生了变化，贸易成为更大的风险来源。我们讨论了在口蹄疫疾病风险管理中贸易限制与生物安全措施之间的权衡。
