Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, N21 W11, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 001-0021, Japan.
Sci Adv. 2018 Aug 29;4(8):eaao1378. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aao1378. eCollection 2018 Aug.
The world's oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species' shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.
世界海洋为数以亿计的人们提供食物和生计，但物种地理分布范围的变化以及气候变化导致的生产力变化，预计将对这些益处产生深远影响。我们探讨了渔业管理的改进如何抵消气候变化的负面影响；我们发现，答案取决于目前鱼类资源的状况。目前许多鱼类资源状况不佳，加上对分布范围变化的潜在适应不良反应，可能会使未来全球渔业的产量和利润比以前的估计更加严重地减少。然而，以联合解决当前效率低下、适应渔业生产力变化以及主动建立有效的跨境机构的方式改革渔业，可能会带来比今天更高的利润和产量。
