Palmer Georgina, Hill Jane K, Brereton Tom M, Brooks David R, Chapman Jason W, Fox Richard, Oliver Tom H, Thomas Chris D
Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York YO10 5DD, UK.
Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK.
Sci Adv. 2015 Oct 30;1(9):e1400220. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1400220. eCollection 2015 Oct.
The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population "forcing" (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species' responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.
动植物对近期气候变化的反应因物种而异，但理解这种差异的尝试取得的成功有限。这引发了人们的担忧，即由于相互作用的驱动因素和生物相互作用的复杂性，对反应的预测本质上是不确定的。然而，我们针对155种鳞翅目物种这一范例群体表明，在过去四十年中，物种丰富度趋势的种间差异约60% 可由物种对气候变化的特定暴露和敏感性来解释。分布变化的预测效果较差，但仍有高达53% 的差异得到了解释。我们发现，物种对气候的总体敏感性各不相同，尽管表面上经历相同的气候变化，但它们对气候的不同组成部分会做出反应。因此，物种经历了不同程度的种群 “压力”（暴露），这导致了物种在国家尺度上的丰富度和分布趋势存在差异。我们得出结论，物种对近期气候变化的反应差异可能比之前认为的更具可预测性。
