Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.
Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
PLoS One. 2020 Mar 5;15(3):e0224347. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224347. eCollection 2020.
Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-as-usual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing-and achieving the benefits of-climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.
尽管气候变化正在改变海洋渔业的生产力和分布，但气候适应性渔业管理可以减轻气候变化对人类社会的许多负面影响。我们根据三种气候情景（RCP4.5、6.0 和 8.5）和五种管理改革水平预测全球渔业生物量、捕捞量和利润到 2100 年，以确定气候变化对国家渔业的影响，并量化实施气候适应性渔业改革的国家规模效益。考虑到生产力转移和分布变化的管理改革，在两个最不严重的气候情景下，相对于今天，未来 60-65%的国家的捕捞量和利润将更高，但在最严重的情景下，只有 35%的国家如此。此外，这些管理改革将在两个最不严重的气候情景下为几乎所有国家带来比现行管理更高的累计捕捞量和利润，但在最严重的情景下，40%的国家的累计捕捞量将更低。幸运的是，不需要完美的渔业管理就能实现这些效益：具有 5 年间隔自适应干预的跨界合作将产生可比的结果。然而，现实的管理改革抵消气候变化负面影响的能力受到基础生物生产力变化的限制。尽管现实的改革可以为 23-50%的生产力下降的国家带来更高的捕捞量和利润，但其余的国家需要发展、扩大和改革水产养殖和其他粮食生产部门，以弥补捕捞渔业的损失。尽管如此，气候适应性管理在所有国家都比现行管理更有利可图，我们为沿着科学、管理和执法能力的梯度实施和实现气候适应性渔业改革的效益提供了指导。
