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土耳其应用模糊层次分析法评估森林道路设计和施工活动中的风险因素。

Assessment of risk factors in forest road design and construction activities with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process approach in Turkey.

机构信息

Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Construction and Transportation, Istanbul University-Cerrahpasa, Bahcekoy, Sariyer, 34473, Istanbul, Turkey.

出版信息

Environ Monit Assess. 2018 Aug 31;190(9):561. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018-6948-0.

Abstract

Forest road design and construction are time-consuming and complicated because various risk factors can be encountered during the process. The aim of this study is to comprehensively assess the risk factors in forest road design and construction using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method in Turkey, thus contributing to the proper performance of these activities. Within the scope of the study, six main risk factors and 22 sub-risk factors were identified based on literature review. In order to determine the weights of the relevant risk factors, the opinions of three different groups [(group 1: academicians), (group 2: forest engineers (private sector employees + public sector employees)), (group 3: group 1 + group 2)] about the risk factors were obtained. Relevant risk factor weights were determined using the fuzzy AHP method. According to group 3, the most important main risk factors are technical risks and environmental risks. In addition, the most important sub-risk factors for each relevant main risk factor were incorrect road alignment, inadequate work safety in the field, insufficient capital, legal problems on the road alignment, landslide risk during road construction, and illegal logging. Differences were observed between groups 1 and 2 in the weight rankings of relevant risk factor. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy AHP method can be used effectively to assess the risks of forest road design and construction.

摘要

森林道路的设计和施工既耗时又复杂,因为在这个过程中可能会遇到各种风险因素。本研究旨在使用模糊层次分析法(AHP)全面评估土耳其森林道路设计和施工中的风险因素,从而促进这些活动的顺利进行。在研究范围内,根据文献回顾确定了 6 个主要风险因素和 22 个次风险因素。为了确定相关风险因素的权重,我们征求了三个不同群体[(群体 1:学者)、(群体 2:森林工程师(私营部门员工+公共部门员工))、(群体 3:群体 1+群体 2)]对风险因素的意见。使用模糊 AHP 方法确定了相关风险因素的权重。根据群体 3 的意见,最重要的主要风险因素是技术风险和环境风险。此外,每个相关主要风险因素的最重要的次风险因素分别是道路线路不正确、现场工作安全不足、资金不足、道路线路的法律问题、道路施工期间的滑坡风险和非法伐木。在相关风险因素的权重排名上,群体 1 和群体 2 之间存在差异。研究结果表明,模糊 AHP 方法可有效用于评估森林道路设计和施工的风险。

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