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登革热疫苗接种对寨卡疫情的影响。

Implication of vaccination against dengue for Zika outbreak.

作者信息

Tang Biao, Xiao Yanni, Wu Jianhong

机构信息

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, PR China.

Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2016 Oct 24;6:35623. doi: 10.1038/srep35623.

Abstract

Zika virus co-circulates with dengue in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Cases of co-infection by dengue and Zika have been reported, the implication of this co-infection for an integrated intervention program for controlling both dengue and Zika must be addressed urgently. Here, we formulate a mathematical model to describe the transmission dynamics of co-infection of dengue and Zika with particular focus on the effects of Zika outbreak by vaccination against dengue among human hosts. Our analysis determines specific conditions under which vaccination against dengue can significantly increase the Zika outbreak peak, and speed up the Zika outbreak peak timing. Our results call for further study about the co-infection to direct an integrated control to balance the benefits for dengue control and the damages of Zika outbreak.

摘要

寨卡病毒与登革热在热带和亚热带地区共同传播。登革热和寨卡病毒共同感染的病例已有报道,这种共同感染对登革热和寨卡病毒综合防控干预计划的影响必须立即加以解决。在此,我们构建了一个数学模型来描述登革热和寨卡病毒共同感染的传播动力学,特别关注人类宿主中通过接种登革热疫苗引发寨卡病毒疫情的影响。我们的分析确定了特定条件,在这些条件下,接种登革热疫苗会显著提高寨卡病毒疫情峰值,并加快寨卡病毒疫情峰值出现的时间。我们的研究结果呼吁对共同感染进行进一步研究,以指导综合防控措施,平衡登革热防控的益处与寨卡病毒疫情造成的损害。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/adeb/5075941/75b16528995b/srep35623-f1.jpg

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