Morgan A G, McAdam W A, Walmsley G L, Jessop A, Horrocks J C, de Dombal F T
Br Med J. 1977 Jul 23;2(6081):237-40. doi: 10.1136/bmj.2.6081.237.
A simple system has been developed to identify patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage who run a high risk of continued bleeding or rebleeding. The system is based on six items of patient data available at or soon after arrival in hospital. It was evaluated in a prospective study of 66 patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage. Over half of the patients classified by the system into a high-risk category either continued bleeding or rebled after apparent cessation (as against one out of 33 patients in the low-risk category). The high-rish group also had a higher mortality (21%) than those in the low-risk group (nil). The addition or subtraction of early endoscopic findings made little difference to the accuracy of prognosis.
已开发出一种简单的系统，用于识别上消化道出血且持续出血或再出血风险高的患者。该系统基于患者入院时或入院后不久可获取的六项数据。在一项对66例上消化道出血患者的前瞻性研究中对该系统进行了评估。该系统分类为高风险类别的患者中，超过一半在明显止血后继续出血或再次出血（相比之下，低风险类别中的33例患者中有1例出现这种情况）。高风险组的死亡率（21%）也高于低风险组（零）。早期内镜检查结果的增加或减少对预后准确性影响不大。
