Morgan A G, McAdam W A, Walmsley G L, Jessop A, Horrocks J C, de Dombal F T
Br Med J. 1977 Jul 23;2(6081):237-40. doi: 10.1136/bmj.2.6081.237.
A simple system has been developed to identify patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage who run a high risk of continued bleeding or rebleeding. The system is based on six items of patient data available at or soon after arrival in hospital. It was evaluated in a prospective study of 66 patients with upper gastrointestinal tract haemorrhage. Over half of the patients classified by the system into a high-risk category either continued bleeding or rebled after apparent cessation (as against one out of 33 patients in the low-risk category). The high-rish group also had a higher mortality (21%) than those in the low-risk group (nil). The addition or subtraction of early endoscopic findings made little difference to the accuracy of prognosis.