Kiuila Olga, Wójtowicz Krzysztof, Żylicz Tomasz, Kasek Leszek
Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, 44/50 Dluga, Warsaw, 00-241 Poland.
Ministry of Economy, Strategy and Analyses Department, Warsaw, Poland.
Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang. 2016;21(2):263-278. doi: 10.1007/s11027-014-9597-9. Epub 2014 Jul 9.
Unilateral climate policy can be detrimental to global climate protection. Our objective is to provide insight into such a policy, to quantify the risk of carbon leakage, and to investigate the effects related to potential anti-leakage measures. We analyze existing definitions of carbon leakage and propose an alternative, rigorous one, which is different in three respects. The definition is then tested using computable general equilibrium analysis of the global economy and decomposition analysis. We identify a list of parameters that affect not only the magnitude but also the sign of the carbon leakage rate. Manipulating elasticities of substitution suggests that carbon leakage can be either positive or negative. Computable general equilibrium models, which are widely applied, including by the European Commission in this area, should be transparent, and their assumptions call for careful validation. We find that emission limits are properly distributed between sectors covered by the European Union Emissions Trading System and other sectors for the first commitment period (ended in 2012) but not for the second one (ending in 2020), where the target for the non-trading sectors should be reduced relative to the target for the trading sectors in order to equlize marginal abatement costs.
单边气候政策可能对全球气候保护有害。我们的目标是深入了解此类政策，量化碳泄漏风险，并研究与潜在防泄漏措施相关的影响。我们分析了现有的碳泄漏定义，并提出了一种不同的、严谨的替代定义，该定义在三个方面有所不同。然后使用全球经济的可计算一般均衡分析和分解分析对该定义进行检验。我们确定了一系列不仅影响碳泄漏率的大小而且影响其正负号的参数。对替代弹性进行调整表明，碳泄漏可能为正，也可能为负。广泛应用的可计算一般均衡模型，包括欧盟委员会在这一领域所使用的模型，应该具有透明度，其假设需要仔细验证。我们发现，在第一个承诺期（截至2012年），排放限制在欧盟排放交易体系覆盖的部门和其他部门之间得到了合理分配，但在第二个承诺期（截至2020年）并非如此，在第二个承诺期，为了使边际减排成本相等，非交易部门的目标相对于交易部门的目标应该降低。
