Acar Sevil, Aşıcı Ahmet Atıl, Yeldan A Erinç
Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Environ Dev Sustain. 2022;24(6):8162-8194. doi: 10.1007/s10668-021-01779-1. Epub 2021 Aug 31.
In December 2019, the EU announced the European Green Deal (EGD) to create a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Accordingly, the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) will be revised to maintain economic growth against possible losses in competitiveness, leading to "carbon leakage." Carbon border adjustment (CBA) is one of the mechanisms proposed to tackle the carbon leakage problem. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impacts of a possible CBA across production sectors and build a dynamic, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to study the overall macroeconomic impact of the EGD on the Turkish economy. Then, we extend our analysis to document the potential benefits of a more active climate policy. The model is in the tradition wherein aggregate supply and demand actions are simulated with the interplay of relative prices to bring equilibrium in the markets for goods, for labor, and for foreign exchange. Constructed around 24 production sectors, the model accommodates flexible, multi-level functional forms to link production activities with gaseous emissions, a government entity to maintain taxation, and public expenditures, as well as administration of environmental policy instruments, all within an open-economy macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that the potential adverse impact of the CBA on the Turkish economy would range between 2.7 and 3.6% loss of the GDP by 2030 over the business-as-(un)usual base path. We also document that under an alternative scenario through which Turkey is modeled as an active agent in the international climate policy arena embedding decarbonization into her official macroeconomic policy agenda, she can achieve a superior pathway for national income and a reduced carbon burden.
2019年12月，欧盟宣布了欧洲绿色协议（EGD），目标是到2050年打造一个气候中和的大陆。相应地，欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）将进行修订，以在竞争力可能受损（即导致“碳泄漏”）的情况下维持经济增长。碳边境调节机制（CBA）是为解决碳泄漏问题而提出的机制之一。在本文中，我们对可能的CBA对各生产部门的潜在影响进行了一阶估计，并构建了一个动态的多部门应用一般均衡（AGE）模型，以研究EGD对土耳其经济的总体宏观经济影响。然后，我们扩展分析，记录更积极的气候政策可能带来的好处。该模型遵循这样一种传统，即通过相对价格的相互作用来模拟总供给和总需求行动，以实现商品市场、劳动力市场和外汇市场的均衡。该模型围绕24个生产部门构建，在开放经济宏观经济环境中，采用灵活的多层次函数形式将生产活动与气体排放联系起来，设有一个政府实体来维持税收和公共支出，以及管理环境政策工具。我们的结果表明，到2030年，CBA对土耳其经济的潜在不利影响将在按常规基准路径计算的国内生产总值损失2.7%至3.6%之间。我们还记录到，在另一种情景下，即土耳其被模拟为国际气候政策舞台上的积极参与者，将脱碳纳入其官方宏观经济政策议程，土耳其可以实现更高的国民收入路径，并减轻碳负担。
