Agronomy Graduate Program at Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Departamento de Ciência Do Solo e Engenharia Agrícola, 4748, General Carlos Cavalcanti Av, 84030-900, Ponta Grossa, Paraná, Brazil.
Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa, Departamento de Ciência Do Solo e Engenharia Agrícola, 4748, General Carlos Cavalcanti Av, 84030-900, Ponta Grossa, Paraná, Brazil.
Environ Pollut. 2018 Dec;243(Pt B):940-952. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.07.068. Epub 2018 Jul 25.
Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emissions. The objectives of this study were to quantify (1) the impact of LULUC on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a subtropical region and (2) the role of conservation agriculture to mitigate GHG emissions promoting ecosystem services. We developed a detailed IPCC Tier 2 GHG inventory for the Campos Gerais region of southern Brazil that has large cropland area under long-term conservation agriculture with high crop yields. The inventory accounted for historical and current emissions from fossil fuel combustion, LULUC and other minor sources. We used Century model to simulate the adoption of conservation best management practices, to all croplands in the region from 2017 to 2117. Our results showed historical (1930-2017) GHG emissions of 412 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376 ± 130 Tg C), the uncertainties ranged between 13 and 36%. Between 1930 and 1985 LULUC was a major source of GHG emission, however from 1985 to 2015 fossil fuel combustion became the primary source of GHG emission. Forestry sequestered 52 ± 24 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in a period of 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha year) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 24 Tg C in 2 Mha in a period of 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha year) being the principal GHG mitigating activities in the study area. The model predictions showed that best management practices have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and livestock emissions (40 Tg C in 100 years) making the agriculture sector a net carbon (C) sink and promoting ecosystem services.
目前，土地利用和土地利用变化（LULUC）排放了 1.3±0.5 Pg 碳（C）年，相当于全球年排放量的 8%。本研究的目的是量化（1）土地利用变化对亚热带地区温室气体（GHG）排放的影响，以及（2）保护农业在减少温室气体排放、促进生态系统服务方面的作用。我们为巴西南部的 Campos Gerais 地区开发了一个详细的 IPCC 二级温室气体清单，该地区有大面积的长期采用保护农业的农田，且作物产量很高。该清单包括历史和当前的化石燃料燃烧、土地利用变化和其他次要来源的排放。我们使用 Century 模型模拟了从 2017 年到 2117 年，在该地区所有农田采用保护最佳管理实践。我们的结果表明，历史（1930-2017 年）温室气体排放量为 412 Tg C，其中土地利用变化贡献了 91%（376±130 Tg C），不确定性范围在 13%到 36%之间。1930 年至 1985 年期间，土地利用变化是温室气体排放的主要来源，但自 1985 年至 2015 年期间，化石燃料燃烧成为温室气体排放的主要来源。在 47 年的时间里（每年 1.8Tg C Mha），林业在 0.6Mha 土地上固碳 52±24Tg C，免耕在 2Mha 土地上固碳 30.4±24Tg C（每年 0.5Tg C Mha），是研究区主要的温室气体减排活动。模型预测表明，最佳管理实践有可能在 100 年内减少 13 年的区域排放（100 年内 330Tg C）或 100 年内农业、林业和畜牧业排放（100 年内 40Tg C），使农业部门成为净碳（C）汇，并促进生态系统服务。
