Soil carbon inventory to quantify the impact of land use change to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem services.

Currently the land use and land use change (LULUC) emits 1.3 ± 0.5 Pg carbon (C) year, equivalent to 8% of the global annual emissions. The objectives of this study were to quantify (1) the impact of LULUC on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in a subtropical region and (2) the role of conservation agriculture to mitigate GHG emissions promoting ecosystem services. We developed a detailed IPCC Tier 2 GHG inventory for the Campos Gerais region of southern Brazil that has large cropland area under long-term conservation agriculture with high crop yields. The inventory accounted for historical and current emissions from fossil fuel combustion, LULUC and other minor sources. We used Century model to simulate the adoption of conservation best management practices, to all croplands in the region from 2017 to 2117. Our results showed historical (1930-2017) GHG emissions of 412 Tg C, in which LULUC contributes 91% (376 ± 130 Tg C), the uncertainties ranged between 13 and 36%. Between 1930 and 1985 LULUC was a major source of GHG emission, however from 1985 to 2015 fossil fuel combustion became the primary source of GHG emission. Forestry sequestered 52 ± 24 Tg C in 0.6 Mha in a period of 47 years (1.8 Tg C Mha year) and no-till sequestered 30.4 ± 24 Tg C in 2 Mha in a period of 32 years (0.5 Tg C Mha year) being the principal GHG mitigating activities in the study area. The model predictions showed that best management practices have the potential to mitigate 13 years of regional emissions (330 Tg C in 100 years) or 105 years of agriculture, forestry and livestock emissions (40 Tg C in 100 years) making the agriculture sector a net carbon (C) sink and promoting ecosystem services.