Liu Xinsheng, Portney Kent E, Mumpower Jeryl L, Vedlitz Arnold
Institute for Science, Technology, and Public Policy, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
School of Public Administration, Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot, China.
Risk Anal. 2019 Mar;39(3):553-570. doi: 10.1111/risa.13203. Epub 2018 Oct 2.
Recollection bias (RB) refers to the phenomenon whereby after an adverse event people report that their risk assessment about a similar future event is presently no higher than their recollection of their pre-event risk assessment. While previous research has outlined this theoretical construct and generated important empirical findings, there were some limitations. We design and employ a new national representative survey to address these limitations in this study. We examine the existence and persistence of RB among the general public in the context of a number of domestic and international terrorist attacks. We further examine the socioeconomic and political base of RB and the influences of RB on a wide range of citizens' counterterrorism policy preferences. Our data analyses reveal strong evidence showing the occurrence of RB and its persistence across various forms of terrorism risk. With regard to the socioeconomic and political base, we find that females, older people, political conservatives, and Republicans are less likely to be subject to RB. For the effects of RB on public counterterrorism policy preferences, our analyses demonstrate that this bias significantly dampens public support for a wide range of preventive policy measures and government anti-terrorism spending. Overall, our study, based on a national representative sample and an extended survey design, provides robust evidence of RB in terrorism risk assessment, and adds further evidence to support the idea that RB is likely a generalizable phenomenon. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed in the conclusion.
回忆偏差（RB）是指这样一种现象：在发生不良事件后，人们报告称他们对未来类似事件的风险评估目前并不高于他们对事件发生前风险评估的回忆。虽然先前的研究已经概述了这一理论结构并产生了重要的实证结果，但仍存在一些局限性。在本研究中，我们设计并采用了一项新的全国代表性调查来解决这些局限性。我们在一系列国内外恐怖袭击的背景下，研究了普通公众中RB的存在情况及其持续性。我们进一步考察了RB的社会经济和政治基础，以及RB对公民广泛的反恐政策偏好的影响。我们的数据分析揭示了有力证据，表明RB在各种形式的恐怖主义风险中都有发生及其持续性。关于社会经济和政治基础，我们发现女性、老年人、政治保守派和共和党人受RB影响的可能性较小。对于RB对公众反恐政策偏好的影响，我们的分析表明，这种偏差显著削弱了公众对广泛的预防性政策措施和政府反恐支出的支持。总体而言，我们基于全国代表性样本和扩展调查设计的研究，为恐怖主义风险评估中的RB提供了有力证据，并进一步支持了RB可能是一种普遍现象的观点。结论部分讨论了对未来研究的启示和建议。
