RIKILT, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Business Economics, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Risk Anal. 2019 Apr;39(4):926-939. doi: 10.1111/risa.13201. Epub 2018 Oct 2.
The presence of hazards (e.g., contaminants, pathogens) in food/feed, water, plants, or animals can lead to major economic losses related to human and animal health or the rejection of batches of food or feed. Monitoring these hazards is important but can lead to high costs. This study aimed to find the most cost-effective sampling and analysis (S&A) plan in the cases of the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) in a wheat batch and aflatoxins (AFB ) in a maize batch. An optimization model was constructed, maximizing the number of correct decisions for accepting/rejecting a batch of cereals, with a budget as major constraint. The decision variables were the choice of the analytical method: instrumental method (e.g., liquid chromatography combined with mass-spectrometry (LC-MS/MS)), enzyme-linked-immuno-assay (ELISA), or lateral flow devices (LFD), the number of incremental samples collected from the batch, and the number of aliquots analyzed. S&A plans using ELISA showed to be slightly more cost effective than S&A plans using the other two analytical methods. However, for DON in wheat, the difference between the optimal S&A plans using the three different analytical methods was minimal. For AFB in maize, the cost effectiveness of the S&A plan using instrumental methods or ELISA were comparable whereas the S&A plan considering onsite detection with LFDs was least cost effective. In case of nonofficial controls, which do not have to follow official regulations for sampling and analysis, onsite detection with ELISA for both AFB in maize and DON in wheat, or with LFDs for DON in wheat, could provide cost-effective alternatives.
食品/饲料、水、植物或动物中存在的危害（例如污染物、病原体）可能导致与人类和动物健康相关的重大经济损失，或导致一批食品或饲料被拒收。监测这些危害很重要，但可能会导致成本增加。本研究旨在针对小麦批次中的脱氧雪腐镰刀菌烯醇 (DON) 和玉米批次中的黄曲霉毒素 (AFB) 等真菌毒素，找到最具成本效益的抽样和分析 (S&A) 计划。构建了一个优化模型，通过预算作为主要约束条件，使接受/拒收一批谷物的正确决策数量最大化。决策变量包括分析方法的选择：仪器方法（例如液相色谱-质谱联用 (LC-MS/MS)）、酶联免疫吸附测定 (ELISA) 或侧向流动设备 (LFD)，从批次中采集的增量样本数量，以及分析的样本份数。使用 ELISA 的 S&A 计划显示略优于使用其他两种分析方法的 S&A 计划。然而，对于小麦中的 DON，使用这三种不同分析方法的最优 S&A 计划之间的差异很小。对于玉米中的 AFB，使用仪器方法或 ELISA 的 S&A 计划的成本效益相当，而考虑使用 LFD 进行现场检测的 S&A 计划的成本效益最低。对于非官方控制，不需要遵循官方的抽样和分析规定，对于玉米中的 AFB 和小麦中的 DON，使用 ELISA 或 LFD 进行现场检测，可以提供具有成本效益的替代方案。
