School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, U.K.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George St, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.
Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2019 Apr;94(2):629-647. doi: 10.1111/brv.12471. Epub 2018 Oct 2.
Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g. economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision-analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms 'Value of Information,' 'Expected Value of Perfect Information,' and the abbreviation 'EVPI.' Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that showed an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, the models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.
保护决策具有挑战性,不仅因为它们经常涉及人们重视的结果之间的困难冲突,还因为我们对自然世界的理解以及我们对其的影响充满不确定性。信息价值 (VoI) 方法为决策者提供了一种理解和管理不确定性的方法。这些方法在其他领域(例如经济学、公共卫生)中得到了广泛应用,并在生物多样性保护中得到了越来越多的应用。这种决策分析方法可以确定在干预效果不确定的情况下选择最佳管理方案,并帮助决策者决定何时采取行动,以及何时延迟行动,直到进一步研究后再做决定。我们回顾了 VoI 在环境领域的应用,思考了需要更广泛地采用 VoI,特别是用于战略保护规划,并提出了新研究的有前景的领域。我们还建议了通用报告标准,作为增加这一强大工具影响力的手段。我们使用“信息价值”、“完全信息期望价值”和缩写“EVPI”等术语,在 Web of Knowledge 的环境科学、生态学和生物多样性类别中进行了搜索。我们还使用相同的术语在 Google Scholar 中进行了搜索,并另外使用了决策和生物学、生物多样性保护、鱼类或生态学等术语。我们从这些搜索中确定了 1225 篇论文。纳入的研究仅限于那些在生物多样性保护中应用了 VoI 的研究,而不是仅仅描述了该方法。所有 VoI 的应用示例都根据 VoI 的应用、管理目标、不确定性、使用的模型、如何衡量目标以及 VoI 的类型进行了总结。虽然 VoI 在生物多样性保护中的应用似乎在增加,但结果的报告非常多样化,这使得难以理解决策背景和考虑了哪些不确定性。此外,尚不清楚这些论文是否以及如何为管理和政策干预提供信息,这就是为什么我们建议一系列报告标准,以帮助使用 VoI。VoI 在保护设置中的应用还处于早期阶段。不仅有机会更广泛地应用于以物种为重点的管理问题,还可以为生物多样性保护设定地方或全球研究优先事项、做出资金决策,或设计或改进保护区网络和管理。应用 VoI 方法于生物多样性保护的长期效益包括更有组织和注重决策地分配资源用于研究。