Conservation Decisions Lab, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Conserv Biol. 2022 Feb;36(1):e13868. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13868. Epub 2022 Jan 28.
Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.
生物多样性保护决策具有挑战性，尤其是当涉及不同价值观、复杂多维目标、有限资源、紧迫性和高度不确定性时。决策科学包含了关于如何做出困难决策的理论以及广泛的框架和工具，使该理论具有实用性。我们旨在提高决策科学的概念清晰度和实际应用，以帮助决策者将决策科学应用于保护问题。我们解决了决策科学采用的障碍，包括缺乏决策科学的培训和意识；对常见术语和应用哪些工具和框架的混淆；以及错误地认为应用决策科学必须耗时、昂贵且复杂的印象。为了帮助在广泛而不同的决策科学文献中进行导航，我们澄清了常见术语的含义：决策科学、决策理论、决策分析、结构化决策和决策支持工具。应用决策科学不一定复杂或耗时；相反，它始于了解如何利用决策分析来思考决策的各个组成部分（即，定义问题、引出目标、开发替代方案、估计后果和进行权衡）。这最好通过应用快速原型制作方法来实现。在每个步骤中，决策支持工具都可以提供额外的见解和清晰度，而决策支持框架（例如，优先威胁管理和系统保护规划）可以帮助针对特定情况的决策分析的多个步骤进行导航。我们总结了关键的决策支持框架和工具，并描述了每个框架和工具最适合应用于决策分析的哪个步骤以及哪些情况下。我们对决策科学的介绍将有助于为当前方法和新发展提供背景，并帮助决策者开始将决策科学应用于保护问题。
