Artun Ozan, Kavur Hakan
Çukurova Üniversitesi Karaisalı Meslek Yüksekokulu, Adana, Türkiye.
Turkiye Parazitol Derg. 2018 Sep;42(3):191-195. doi: 10.5152/tpd.2018.5924.
In our study, we aimed to develop an ecological niche model showing current distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) by using location information on 630 cases of CL reported in the Mersin province between 2005 and 2015 and bioclimatic and environmental variables.
The ecological niche model was based on interpretation of patient locations and climatic data entered in geographical information systems and maximum entropy databases.
In the model produced for the Mersin province, the area under the curve was calculated as 0.918. Also, the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (BIO5) were determined as climatic factors that are most effective for CL distribution.
There is a relationship between distribution of CL and climatic factors in the Mersin province. The developed model will contribute to better understanding of epidemiology and control of vector-borne diseases by authorities in the ministry of health.
在我们的研究中，我们旨在通过利用2005年至2015年期间梅尔辛省报告的630例皮肤利什曼病（CL）病例的位置信息以及生物气候和环境变量，开发一个显示CL当前分布的生态位模型。
生态位模型基于对输入地理信息系统和最大熵数据库中的患者位置和气候数据的解释。
在为梅尔辛省生成的模型中，曲线下面积计算为0.918。此外，最干燥季度的平均温度（BIO9）、最温暖季度的平均温度（BIO10）和最温暖月份的最高温度（BIO5）被确定为对CL分布最有效的气候因素。
梅尔辛省CL的分布与气候因素之间存在关联。所开发的模型将有助于卫生部当局更好地理解媒介传播疾病的流行病学并进行控制。
