Moo-Llanes David A
Rev Biol Trop. 2016 Sep;64(3):1237-45.
The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.
利什曼病是一个复杂的疾病系统，由原生动物寄生虫利什曼原虫引起，并通过白蛉属媒介传播给人类。由于它被世界卫生组织列为被忽视的疾病，本研究的目的是确定新热带地区皮肤利什曼病和内脏利什曼病当前和未来的生态位。我们使用最大熵算法构建了皮肤利什曼病（N = 2910个出现点）和内脏利什曼病（N = 851个出现点）的生态位模型（ENM）。九个生物气候变量（BIO1、BIO4、BIO5、BIO6、BIO7、BIO12、BIO13、BIO14、BIO15（从Worldclim下载））和疾病出现数据用于构建三个时期（当前、2050年和2070年）以及四种气候变化情景（RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5）的ENM。我们分析了占据的像素数量、生态位同一性、改变的生态位（稳定、丧失和获得）以及季节性。我们的分析表明皮肤利什曼病（CL）范围扩大，内脏利什曼病（VL）则有所不同。我们用赫林格指数= 0.91（0.92 - 0.98）和舍纳指数= 0.67（0.85 - 1.00）拒绝了CL和VL之间生态位同一性的零假设，但生态位重叠率为56.3%。在RCP情景和生态位转移（获得/丧失面积）方面检测到了两种利什曼病类型之间的差异。季节性对CL更为重要。我们提供了新热带地区CL和VL分布的当前情况以及与不同气候变化情景相关的预测分布变化。我们可以预期范围可能会扩大，尽管这将局部取决于未来天气季节性的趋势。
