Artun Ozan
Cukurova University, Karaisali Vocational School, Karaisali, Adana, Turkey.
J Vector Borne Dis. 2019 Apr-Jun;56(2):127-133. doi: 10.4103/0972-9062.263726.
BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is widespread in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world including, Tukey. Environmental determinants for the CL endemic areas in Turkey are relatively poorly understood. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on ecological niche modeling (ENM) to predict the distribution of CL in endemic areas of Adana Province in Turkey.
The environmental data from different sources were extracted and information on 1831 native CL cases, obtained from the Provincial Health Directorate of Adana were recorded. The location information obtained from the Ministry of Health database were used for modeling the current probability of CL occurrence and predicting its future distribution using ENM analyses. ArcGIS and MaxEnt models were used to explore the ecological conditions of the disease.
According to the MaxEnt model, the area under the curve (AUC) values for the current and projected future of CL were 0.868 and 0.867, respectively. The environmental variables, Bio1 (Annual mean temperature), Bio4 (Temperature seasonality) and DEM (Digital elevation model) were found to be associated with the presence of human cases of Leishmania infantum for both the time periods in the study area.
INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: The AUC curves and risk map generated by the ENM model indicate that the future status of CL is likely to be stable in the northern part of Adana, but the southern part will be affected by climate changes (change of temperature) with a large number of patient-reporting. The results of the study could be used as a reference for CL and vector control studies. The ENM could be useful for researchers in vector control studies and better understanding of the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in a specific area.
皮肤利什曼病（CL）在包括土耳其在内的世界热带和亚热带地区广泛流行。人们对土耳其CL流行地区的环境决定因素了解相对较少。本研究的目的是开发一种基于生态位建模（ENM）的模型，以预测土耳其阿达纳省流行地区CL的分布。
提取来自不同来源的环境数据，并记录从阿达纳省卫生管理局获得的1831例本地CL病例的信息。从卫生部数据库获得的位置信息用于通过ENM分析模拟CL发生的当前概率并预测其未来分布。使用ArcGIS和MaxEnt模型探索该疾病的生态条件。
根据MaxEnt模型，CL当前和预测未来的曲线下面积（AUC）值分别为0.868和0.867。研究发现，环境变量Bio1（年平均温度）、Bio4（温度季节性）和数字高程模型（DEM）在研究区域的两个时间段内均与婴儿利什曼原虫人类病例的存在相关。
ENM模型生成的AUC曲线和风险图表明，CL的未来状况在阿达纳北部可能保持稳定，但南部将受到气候变化（温度变化）的影响，报告的患者数量会大量增加。该研究结果可为CL和病媒控制研究提供参考。ENM对病媒控制研究的研究人员以及更好地了解特定地区病媒传播疾病的流行病学可能有用。
