Weaver Elizabeth A, Kolivras Korine N
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 4061, USA.
Ecohealth. 2018 Dec;15(4):840-852. doi: 10.1007/s10393-018-1375-9. Epub 2018 Oct 3.
Valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) is a disease caused by inhalation of spores from the soil-dwelling Coccidioides fungal species. The disease is endemic to semiarid areas in the western USA and parts of Central and South America. The region of interest for this study, Kern County, California, accounts for approximately 14% of the reported valley fever cases in the USA each year. It is hypothesized that the weather conditions that foster the growth and dispersal of the fungus influence the number of cases in the endemic area. This study uses regression-based analysis to model and assess the seasonal relationships between valley fever incidence and climatic variables including concurrent and lagged precipitation, temperature, Palmer Drought Severity Index, wind speed, and PM using data from 2000 to 2015. We find statistically significant links between disease incidence and climate conditions in Kern County, California. The best performing seasonal model explains up to 76% of the variability in fall valley fever incidence based on concurrent and antecedent climate conditions. Findings are consistent with previous studies, suggesting that antecedent precipitation is an important predictor of disease. The significant relationships found support the "grow and blow" hypothesis for climate-related coccidioidomycosis incidence risk that was originally developed for Arizona.
谷热（球孢子菌病）是一种因吸入土壤中球孢子菌属真菌的孢子而引发的疾病。该病在美国西部的半干旱地区以及中美洲和南美洲部分地区呈地方性流行。本研究的关注区域加利福尼亚州克恩县，每年报告的谷热病例约占美国的14%。据推测，有利于真菌生长和传播的天气条件会影响地方性流行地区的病例数量。本研究采用基于回归的分析方法，利用2000年至2015年的数据，对谷热发病率与气候变量（包括同期和滞后降水量、温度、帕尔默干旱严重指数、风速和颗粒物）之间的季节关系进行建模和评估。我们发现加利福尼亚州克恩县的疾病发病率与气候条件之间存在统计学上的显著关联。表现最佳的季节模型基于同期和前期气候条件，解释了秋季谷热发病率高达76%的变异性。研究结果与先前的研究一致，表明前期降水量是疾病的重要预测指标。所发现的显著关系支持了最初为亚利桑那州提出的与气候相关的球孢子菌病发病风险的“生长与传播”假说。
