预测南非青少年的中学辍学情况：一种生存分析方法。
Predicting secondary school dropout among South African adolescents: A survival analysis approach.
作者信息
Weybright Elizabeth H, Caldwell Linda L, Xie Hui Jimmy, Wegner Lisa, Smith Edward A
机构信息
Human Development Department, College of Agricultural, Human, and Natural Resource Sciences, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA.
Department of Recreation, Park, and Tourism Management, College of Health and Human Development, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Faculty of Community and Health Sciences, University of the Western Cape, Bellville, South Africa.
出版信息
S Afr J Educ. 2017 May;37(2). doi: 10.15700/saje.v37n2a1353.
Education is one of the strongest predictors of health worldwide. In South Africa, school dropout is a crisis where by Grade 12, only 52% of the age appropriate population remain enrolled. Survival analysis was used to identify the risk of dropping out of secondary school for male and female adolescents and examine the influence of substance use and leisure experience predictors while controlling for demographic and known predictors using secondary, longitudinal data. Results indicated being male, not living with one's mother, smoking cigarettes in the past month, and lower levels of leisure-related intrinsic motivation significantly predicted dropout. Results support comprehensive prevention programmes that target risk behaviour and leisure.
在全球范围内，教育是健康状况的最有力预测因素之一。在南非，辍学是一场危机，到12年级时，适龄人口中只有52%仍在上学。利用生存分析来确定青少年男性和女性中学辍学的风险，并在使用二手纵向数据控制人口统计学因素和已知预测因素的同时，检验物质使用和休闲经历预测因素的影响。结果表明，男性、不与母亲同住、在过去一个月吸烟以及与休闲相关的内在动机水平较低是辍学的显著预测因素。研究结果支持针对风险行为和休闲的综合预防方案。
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