Bishwa B. Adhikari, PhD, is a Senior Economist; Michael L. Washington, PhD, is a Health Scientist; Emily B. Kahn, PhD, is a Senior Epidemiologist; and Martin I. Meltzer, PhD, is Senior Health Economist/Distinguished Consultant; all at the National Center for Emerging & Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA. Lisa M. Koonin, DrPH, MN, MPH, is Deputy Director, Influenza Coordination Unit, National Center for Immunization & Respiratory Diseases, CDC, Atlanta. Melissa L. Mugambi, PhD, is Assistant Professor, Department of Global Health, University of Washington , Seattle, WA. Kellye D. Sliger, MPH, is an Epidemiologist, Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Oak Ridge, TN. The authors are solely responsible for the content of this article; the views presented do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The authors have no conflicts of interest.
Health Secur. 2018 Sep/Oct;16(5):334-340. doi: 10.1089/hs.2018.0061.
Telephone nurse triage lines, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Flu on Call, a national nurse triage line, may help reduce the surge in demand for health care during an influenza pandemic by triaging callers, providing advice about clinical care and information about the pandemic, and providing access to prescription antiviral medication. We developed a Call Volume Projection Tool to estimate national call volume to Flu on Call during an influenza pandemic. The tool incorporates 2 influenza clinical attack rates (20% and 30%), 4 different levels of pandemic severity, and different initial "seed numbers" of cases (10 or 100), and it allows variation in which week the nurse triage line opens. The tool calculates call volume by using call-to-hospitalization ratios based on pandemic severity. We derived data on nurse triage line calls and call-to-hospitalization ratios from experience with the 2009 Minnesota FluLine nurse triage line. Assuming a 20% clinical attack rate and a case hospitalization rate of 0.8% to 1.5% (1968-like pandemic severity), we estimated the nationwide number of calls during the peak week of the pandemic to range from 1,551,882 to 3,523,902. Assuming a more severe 1957-like pandemic (case hospitalization rate = 1.5% to 3.0%), the national number of calls during the peak week of the pandemic ranged from 2,909,778 to 7,047,804. These results will aid in planning and developing nurse triage lines at both the national and state levels for use during a future influenza pandemic.
电话护士分诊线，如疾病预防控制中心的（CDC）流感热线，是一条全国性的护士分诊线，通过分诊来电者、提供临床护理建议和大流行信息，并提供处方抗病毒药物，可能有助于减少流感大流行期间对医疗保健的需求激增。我们开发了一个呼叫量预测工具，以估计流感大流行期间全国呼叫量到流感热线的数量。该工具结合了 2 种流感临床攻击率（20%和 30%）、4 种不同严重程度的大流行级别以及不同的初始“种子数”（10 或 100），并允许调整护士分诊线开放的周数。该工具通过使用基于大流行严重程度的呼叫到住院比例来计算呼叫量。我们从 2009 年明尼苏达州 FluLine 护士分诊线的经验中获得了有关护士分诊线呼叫和呼叫到住院比例的数据。假设临床攻击率为 20%，病例住院率为 0.8%至 1.5%（1968 年类似大流行严重程度），我们估计大流行高峰期全国范围内的呼叫数量范围从 1,551,882 到 3,523,902。假设更严重的 1957 年类似大流行（病例住院率=1.5%至 3.0%），大流行高峰期全国范围内的呼叫数量范围从 2,909,778 到 7,047,804。这些结果将有助于规划和开发未来流感大流行期间在国家和州各级使用的护士分诊线。
