流感激增预测工具——一种用于估计下一次大流行性流感期间医院服务需求的工具。
FluSurge--a tool to estimate demand for hospital services during the next pandemic influenza.
作者信息
Zhang Xinzhi, Meltzer Martin I, Wortley Pascale M
机构信息
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Office of Surveillance, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
出版信息
Med Decis Making. 2006 Nov-Dec;26(6):617-23. doi: 10.1177/0272989X06295359.
PURPOSE
To assess the impact of pandemic influenza on hospital services.
METHODS
Based on census data and estimates of hospital resources (non-ICU [intensive care unit] beds, ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators) in a given area, FluSurge software estimates the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to pandemic influenza under variable duration and virulence scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during a pandemic with existing hospital resources.
RESULTS
Sample results from Metropolitan Atlanta illustrate how the next influenza pandemic may overwhelm existing hospital resources, given that hospitals increasingly operate at nearly full capacity.
CONCLUSIONS
Hospitals need to consider and plan for a surge in demand for hospital services during the next influenza pandemic.
目的
评估大流行性流感对医院服务的影响。
方法
基于某特定地区的人口普查数据及医院资源（非重症监护病房床位、重症监护病房床位和机械通气设备）估计，FluSurge软件可估算在不同持续时间和毒力情况下因大流行性流感导致的住院人数和死亡人数，并将大流行期间所需的医院资源与现有医院资源进行比较。
结果
来自亚特兰大大都会区的样本结果表明，鉴于医院越来越接近满负荷运转，下一次流感大流行可能会使现有医院资源不堪重负。
结论
医院需要考虑并规划下一次流感大流行期间医院服务需求的激增情况。
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