Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2013 Jan;19(1):85-91. doi: 10.3201/eid1901.120124.
The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.
流感对人群的影响归因于疾病的临床严重程度和感染人数,这在季节或大流行之间可能有很大差异。为了创建一个评估新出现的大流行对公共卫生影响的系统框架,我们回顾了过去流感季节和大流行的数据,以描述严重程度和传染性(基于这些措施在美国的范围),并概述了对新型病毒潜在影响的正式评估。该评估分为两个阶段。由于大流行早期,严重程度和传染性的测量不确定,我们在初始评估中使用了广泛的二分法尺度来划分历史值的范围。在精细化评估中,随着更多数据的出现,我们更精确地对这些值进行分类。通过组织和优先收集数据,这种方法可以为大流行影响的循证评估提供信息,并指导决策。