Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina FMUSP, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil.
UKCRC Centre for Diet and Activity Research, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
J Public Health (Oxf). 2019 Sep 30;41(3):e253-e260. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdy183.
Studies on the impact of counterfactual scenarios of physical activity on premature deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are sparse in the literature. We estimated preventable premature deaths from NCDs (diabetes, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and breast and colon cancers) in Brazil by increasing population-wide physical activity (i) to theoretical minimum risk exposure levels; (ii) reaching the physical activity recommendation; (iii) reducing insufficient physical activity by 10%; and (iv) eliminating the gender differences in physical activity.
Preventable fractions were estimated using data from a nationally representative survey, relative risks from a meta-analysis and number of premature deaths (30-69 years) from the Brazilian Mortality Information System.
Physical activity could potentially avoid up to 16 700 premature deaths from NCDs in Brazil, corresponding to 5.75 and 3.23% of premature deaths from major NCDs and of all-causes, respectively. Other scenarios suggested the following impact on premature deaths: reaching physical activity recommendation (5000 or 1.74% of major NCDs); 10% reduction in insufficient physical activity (500 or 0.17% of major NCDs); eliminating gender differences in physical activity (1000 or 0.33% of major NCDs).
Physical activity may play an important role to reduce premature deaths from NCD in Brazil.
关于体力活动反事实情景对非传染性疾病（NCD）过早死亡影响的研究在文献中较为少见。我们通过增加人群体力活动（i）达到理论最低风险暴露水平；（ii）达到体力活动建议；（iii）减少 10%的体力活动不足；以及（iv）消除体力活动中的性别差异，来估计巴西因 NCD 导致的可预防过早死亡人数。
使用全国代表性调查数据、荟萃分析中的相对风险以及巴西死亡率信息系统中的 30-69 岁人群的过早死亡人数来估计可预防分数。
体力活动可能会避免巴西高达 16700 例 NCD 相关的过早死亡，分别相当于主要 NCD 和所有原因导致的过早死亡的 5.75%和 3.23%。其他情景表明对过早死亡的以下影响：达到体力活动建议（5000 例或主要 NCD 的 1.74%）；减少 10%的体力活动不足（500 例或主要 NCD 的 0.17%）；消除体力活动中的性别差异（1000 例或主要 NCD 的 0.33%）。
体力活动可能在减少巴西 NCD 导致的过早死亡方面发挥重要作用。
