School of Psychology, University of Auckland.
Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury.
Psychol Sci. 2018 Dec;29(12):1996-2009. doi: 10.1177/0956797618805420. Epub 2018 Oct 24.
Real-world tests of the impact of partisan cues on voters are scarce because they require assessing how citizens' attitudes changed toward an issue from before to after it became politically divisive. During the 2015-2016 New Zealand flag referendums, the leader of the (center-right) National Party and then-Prime Minister, John Key, championed changing the flag-a move strongly contested by the (center-left) Labour Party. Accordingly, we measured New Zealanders' attitudes toward changing the flag using national longitudinal panel data collected in 2013, before the change was proposed, and again in 2016 at the height of the debate (s = 6,793-6,806). Registered voters who supported the National Party were more likely to shift from opposing to supporting the flag change, whereas those who supported the Labour Party were more likely to shift from supporting to opposing the change. These data demonstrate the powerful impact of partisan cues on political attitudes in a real-world setting.
由于需要评估公民对一个问题的态度在该问题变得政治分歧前后的变化,因此针对选民的党派提示的实际影响进行测试的实例很少。在 2015-2016 年新西兰国旗公投期间,(中右翼)国家党的领导人、时任总理约翰·基(John Key)倡导更换国旗,而(中左翼)工党强烈反对这一举措。因此,我们使用在 2013 年(在提议更改之前)和 2016 年(在辩论高峰期)收集的全国纵向面板数据来衡量新西兰人对更改国旗的态度(样本量为 6793-6806)。支持国家党的注册选民更有可能从反对更改为支持国旗更改,而支持工党的选民则更有可能从支持更改为反对更改。这些数据表明,党派提示在现实环境中对政治态度具有强大的影响。