2011-2015 年马萨诸塞州阿片类药物使用障碍的估计患病率：捕获-再捕获分析。
Estimated Prevalence of Opioid Use Disorder in Massachusetts, 2011-2015: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.
机构信息
Joshua A. Barocas, Jianing Wang, Jake R. Morgan, and Benjamin P. Linas are with the Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA. Laura F. White is with the Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health. Alexander Y. Walley, Marc R. LaRochelle, and Jeffrey H. Samet are with the Clinical Addiction Research and Education Unit, Section of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center. Dana Bernson is with the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Boston. Thomas Land is with the University of Massachusetts Medical School, Boston.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2018 Dec;108(12):1675-1681. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2018.304673. Epub 2018 Oct 25.
OBJECTIVES
To estimate the annual prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) in Massachusetts from 2011 to 2015.
METHODS
We performed a multisample stratified capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Massachusetts. Individuals identified from 6 administrative databases for 2011 to 2012 and 7 databases for 2013 to 2015 were linked at the individual level and included in the analysis. Individuals were stratified by age group, sex, and county of residence.
RESULTS
The OUD prevalence in Massachusetts among people aged 11 years or older was 2.72% in 2011 and 2.87% in 2012. Between 2013 and 2015, the prevalence increased from 3.87% to 4.60%. The greatest increase in prevalence was observed among those in the youngest age group (11-25 years), a 76% increase from 2011 to 2012 and a 42% increase from 2013 to 2015.
CONCLUSIONS
In Massachusetts, the OUD prevalence was 4.6% among people 11 years or older in 2015. The number of individuals with OUD is likely increasing, particularly among young people.
目的
估计 2011 年至 2015 年马萨诸塞州阿片类药物使用障碍（OUD）的年患病率。
方法
我们采用多样本分层捕获-再捕获分析来估计马萨诸塞州的 OUD 患病率。从 2011 年至 2012 年的 6 个行政数据库和 2013 年至 2015 年的 7 个数据库中识别出的个体在个体层面进行了链接，并纳入了分析。个体按年龄组、性别和居住县进行分层。
结果
2011 年和 2012 年，11 岁及以上人群中马萨诸塞州 OUD 的患病率分别为 2.72%和 2.87%。2013 年至 2015 年，患病率从 3.87%上升到 4.60%。在年龄最小的人群（11-25 岁）中，患病率的增长最大，从 2011 年到 2012 年增加了 76%，从 2013 年到 2015 年增加了 42%。
结论
2015 年，马萨诸塞州 11 岁及以上人群中 OUD 的患病率为 4.6%。患有 OUD 的人数可能在增加，尤其是在年轻人中。
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