State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China; School of Natural Resources Science and Technology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China.
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, People's Republic of China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 20;652:117-133. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.206. Epub 2018 Oct 18.
Land use change affects ecosystem services by changing the structure and function of ecosystems. Carbon flows throughout natural and socioeconomic systems can effectively reveal this process. The Manas River Basin has experienced rapid oasis expansion for decades, and land use change in the basin is very typical. Oasis expansion has caused a large amount of cropland to invade natural vegetation, thus affecting ecosystem services. This study used a biomass-based ecosystem service estimation model to assess changes in ecosystem services in the Manas River Basin. The carbon flow model was constructed using energy systems language, and the future development of ecosystem services was simulated based on different land use scenarios. The results show the following: (1) From 1980 to 2015, the river basin provisioning service was continuously optimized, while the regulating, supporting and cultural services were reduced. (2) If the expansion of cropland continues, then carbon will be transferred from the natural ecosystem to the cropland. Regulation, support and cultural services in the basin continue to decrease. Due to the shortage of water resources in the basin, the growth of provisioning services is limited. (3) If the project of returning cropland to grassland is implemented, then the carbon in the natural ecosystem will gradually recover. The regulating, supporting and cultural services of the river basin are rising, but provisioning services are gradually decreasing. In general, the model based on energy systems language can reflect the ecological process within the system and effectively reveal the carbon flow process between ecosystems. The use of carbon to quantify ecosystem services can harmonize dimensions, facilitate comparisons, and mitigate errors in outcomes due to different evaluation criteria or subjective factors. Therefore, this study combines energy systems language with carbon flow, which helps to more rationally explore the impact of land use change on ecosystem services, thereby providing valuable information for river basin management.
土地利用变化通过改变生态系统的结构和功能来影响生态系统服务。碳在自然和社会经济系统中的流动可以有效地揭示这一过程。玛纳斯河流域几十年来经历了绿洲的快速扩张，流域内的土地利用变化非常典型。绿洲的扩张导致大量耕地侵占了天然植被，从而影响了生态系统服务。本研究使用基于生物量的生态系统服务评估模型来评估玛纳斯河流域生态系统服务的变化。利用能源系统语言构建了碳流动模型，并根据不同的土地利用情景模拟了生态系统服务的未来发展。结果表明：（1）1980 年至 2015 年，流域供给服务不断优化，而调节、支撑和文化服务则减少。（2）如果继续扩大耕地，那么碳将从自然生态系统转移到耕地。流域的调节、支撑和文化服务继续减少。由于流域水资源短缺，供给服务的增长受到限制。（3）如果实施退耕还草工程，那么自然生态系统中的碳将逐渐恢复。流域的调节、支撑和文化服务呈上升趋势，但供给服务逐渐减少。总的来说，基于能源系统语言的模型可以反映系统内的生态过程，有效地揭示生态系统之间的碳流动过程。利用碳来量化生态系统服务可以协调维度，便于比较，并减轻由于不同的评估标准或主观因素而导致的结果误差。因此，本研究将能源系统语言与碳流动相结合，有助于更合理地探索土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响，从而为流域管理提供有价值的信息。
