Boulange Julien, Thuyet Dang Quoc, Jaikaew Piyanuch, Ishihara Satoru, Watanabe Hirozumi
Department of International Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 3-5-8 Saiwaicho Fuchu Tokyo 183-8509, Japan.
Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8657, Japan.
J Pestic Sci. 2016 Nov 20;41(4):152-162. doi: 10.1584/jpestics.D16-027.
A pesticide fate and transport model, SPEC, was developed for assessing Soil-PEC (Predicted Environmental Concentrations in agricultural soils) for pesticide residues in upland field environments. The SPEC model was validated for predicting the water content and concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor in 5-cm deep soil. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the robustness of the model's predictions. The predicted daily soil water contents were accurate regarding the number of observation points (=269). The coefficient of determination ( ) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ( ) were equal to 0.38 and 0.22, respectively. The predicted daily concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor were also satisfactory since the and statistics were greater than 0.91 and 0.76, respectively. The field capacity, the saturated water content of the soil and the parameter were identified as major contributors to variation in predicted soil water content or/and herbicide concentrations.
为评估旱地农田环境中农药残留的土壤预测环境浓度（Soil-PEC），开发了一种农药归宿与迁移模型SPEC。SPEC模型经验证可用于预测5厘米深土壤中阿特拉津和异丙甲草胺的含水量及浓度。采用不确定性和敏感性分析来评估模型预测的稳健性。就观测点数量（=269）而言，预测的每日土壤含水量是准确的。决定系数（ ）和纳什-萨特克利夫效率（ ）分别等于0.38和0.22。预测的阿特拉津和异丙甲草胺每日浓度也令人满意，因为 和 统计量分别大于0.91和0.76。田间持水量、土壤饱和含水量和 参数被确定为预测土壤含水量或/和除草剂浓度变化的主要因素。
