Injury Prevention Research Center, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong 515041, China; Department of Community monitoring, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China.
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Feb 20;652:1013-1021. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.304. Epub 2018 Oct 23.
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health issue in China, and its incidence in Guangdong Province is higher than the national average. Previous studies have found climatic factors have an influential role in the transmission of HFMD. Internet search technology has been shown to predict some infectious disease epidemics and is a potential resource in tracking epidemics in countries where the use of Internet search index data is prevalent. This study aims to improve the prediction of HFMD in two Chinese cities, Shantou and Shenzhen in Guangdong Province, applying both meteorological data and Baidu search indices to create a HFMD forecasting model. To this end, the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD was found to be linear in both cities, while the relationship between search engine data and HFMD was not consistent. The results of our study suggest that using both Internet search and meteorological data can improve the prediction of HFMD incidence. Using comparative analysis of both cities, we posit that improved quality search indices enhance prediction of HFMD.
手足口病(HFMD)是中国的一个公共卫生问题,其在广东省的发病率高于全国平均水平。先前的研究发现,气候因素对手足口病的传播有影响。互联网搜索技术已被证明可以预测一些传染病的流行情况,是在互联网搜索索引数据使用普遍的国家追踪传染病的潜在资源。本研究旨在通过应用气象数据和百度搜索指数,为广东省的汕头市和深圳市这两个中国城市创建手足口病预测模型,从而提高对手足口病的预测能力。为此,我们发现气象因素与这两个城市的手足口病之间的关系呈线性,而搜索引擎数据与手足口病之间的关系并不一致。我们的研究结果表明,使用互联网搜索和气象数据可以提高对手足口病发病率的预测能力。通过对两个城市的比较分析,我们认为提高搜索指数的质量可以增强对手足口病的预测能力。