Lymph node metastasis and high serum CEA are important prognostic factors in hormone receptor positive and HER2 negative breast cancer.

In recent years, treatment options for breast cancer have increased, and prognosis has improved since the 1990s. The present study examined the prognosis for recurrence of breast cancer between 2006 and 2009, in comparison with the results of past treatments, and sought to guide future treatment strategies by elucidating present prognostic factors. A total of 662 patients with breast cancer stage 0-III who underwent surgery at Kitasato University Hospital between January 2006 and March 2009 were included. Cases were classified into four subtypes, based on the presence or absence of hormone receptors and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Factors associated with recurrence and prognosis were then examined. The 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 94.9% and the 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) was 98.4%. Factors related to RFS were pathological lymph node (pN) positive [hazard ratio (HR)=2.85, P=0.001], clinical lymph node (cN) positive (HR=2.28, P<0.01), and hormone receptor negative (HR=1.83, P<0.05). Factors associated with DSS were cN positive (HR=4.55, P<0.01), pN positive (HR=3.40, P<0.05), higher preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (HR=3.04, P<0.05), and hormone receptor negative (HR=2.32, P<0.05). In the hormone receptor positive HER2 negative, cN-positive/pN-positive breast cancer group, RFS and DSS were poorer compared with the other groups. In this group, preoperative high CEA level was a poor prognostic factor. The prognosis for hormone receptor positive HER2-negative breast cancer has improved significantly since the 1990s. On the other hand, the prognosis for cN-positive/pN-positive breast cancer was poor. Pre-treatment serum CEA positive cases exhibited a particularly poor prognosis.