The alveolar ridge splitting technique enables reconstruction of atrophied alveolar ridges prior implantation. However, in cases of severe atrophy, there is an unpredictable risk of fracturing the buccal lamella during the expansion. Currently, there is no preoperative assessment to predict the maximum distraction of the lamella. The aim of this study was to develop a biomechanical model to mimic the alveolar ridge splitting and a finite element (FE) model to predict the experimental results. The biomechanical testing was conducted on porcine mandibles. To build the FE model high resolution peripheral quantitative computer tomography scans of one specimen was performed after the osteotomy outline, but before the lamella displacement. A servo-electric testing machine was used for the axial tension test to split the lamellae. Results showed, in line with clinical observations, that the lamellae broke primarily at the base of the splits with a median displacement of 1.27 mm. The FE model could predict fracture force and fracture displacement. Fracture force showed a nonlinear correlation with the height of the bone lamella. In conclusion, good correspondence between mechanical testing and virtual FE analysis showed a clinically relevant approach that may help to predict maximum lamella displacement to prevent fractures in the future.