School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Nov 8;15(11):2494. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15112494.
The establishment of an effective policy response to rising heatwave impacts is most effective when the history of heatwaves, their current impacts and future risks, are mapped by a common metric. In response meteorological agencies aim to develop seamless climate, forecast, and warning heat impact services, spanning all temporal and spatial scales. The ability to diagnose heatwave severity using the Excess Heat Factor () has allowed the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) to publicly release 7-day heatwave severity maps since 2014. National meteorological agencies in the UK and the United States are evaluating global 7-day and multi-week heatwave severity probability forecasts, whilst the Bureau contributes to a Copernicus project to supply the health sector with global severity heatwave projection scenarios. In an evaluation of impact skill within global forecast systems, intensity and severity is reviewed as a predictor of human health impact, and extended using climate observations and human health data for sites around the globe. Heatwave intensity, determined by short and long-term temperature anomalies at each locality, is normalized to permit spatial analysis and inter-site comparison. Dimensionless heatwave event moments of peak severity and accumulated severity are shown to correlate with noteworthy events around the globe, offering new insights into current and future heatwave variability and vulnerability. The severity metric permits the comparison of international heatwave events and their impacts, and is readily implemented within international heatwave early warning systems.
当通过共同指标来绘制热浪的历史、当前影响和未来风险时，制定应对不断上升的热浪影响的有效政策最为有效。因此，气象机构旨在开发无缝的气候、预测和预警热影响服务，涵盖所有时间和空间尺度。利用过热因子（Excess Heat Factor）来诊断热浪严重程度的能力，使澳大利亚气象局（气象局）能够自 2014 年以来公开发布 7 天热浪严重程度地图。英国和美国的国家气象机构正在评估全球 7 天和多周的热浪严重程度概率预测，而气象局则为哥白尼项目做出贡献，为卫生部门提供全球严重程度热浪预测情景。在对全球预报系统中的影响技能进行评估时，强度和严重程度被作为人类健康影响的预测指标进行了审查，并通过气候观测和全球各地的人类健康数据进行了扩展。热浪强度由每个地点的短期和长期温度异常决定，并进行归一化，以允许进行空间分析和站点间比较。峰值严重程度和累积严重程度的无维热浪事件时刻与全球各地的显著事件相关，为当前和未来的热浪变化和脆弱性提供了新的见解。严重程度指标允许比较国际热浪事件及其影响，并可轻松应用于国际热浪预警系统中。
