School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2018 Nov 9;15(11):2507. doi: 10.3390/ijerph15112507.
Residential energy consumption (REC) has become increasingly important in constructing an energy-saving and environment-friendly society in China. The main purpose of this study is to provide a more in-depth analysis of the determinants of REC from an urban-rural segregation perspective, and quantify the contributions of individual determinants to the regional disparities of REC. Based on the extended STIRPAT (the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model, seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation is employed to examine the impacts of various determinants of urban REC per capita (URECP) and rural REC per capita (RRECP) in a sample of China's 30 provinces over the period 2007⁻2016. Then, following the results of SUR, this paper tries to explore the reasons for interprovincial disparities of URECP and RRECP by using the Shapley value decomposition. The empirical results show that income level and heating lead to an increase in URECP, while other factors, including the share of natural gas, average temperature, child dependency ratio and gross dependency ratio, significantly decrease URECP. In terms of RRECP, it is shown that old-age dependency ratio, income level and the share of coal consumption positively influence RRECP, while average temperature has a negative effect on RRECP. Specially, the effect of gross dependency ratio on RRECP is positive, indicating the non-working-age population causes more energy use than the working-age population in rural areas. According to the Shapley decomposition, rather than social-economic variables, climate and heating factors contribute the most to the interprovincial differences in URECP. Furthermore, it is found that income level is the most important factor accounting for inter-provincial differences in RRECP. The findings of this research are of great interest, not only to scholars in REC-related fields, but also to decision makers.
住宅能源消耗（REC）在中国建设节能和环保型社会中变得越来越重要。本研究的主要目的是从城乡隔离的角度对 REC 的决定因素进行更深入的分析，并量化各个决定因素对 REC 地区差异的贡献。基于扩展的 STIRPAT（人口、富裕和技术对冲击的随机影响）模型，采用似不相关回归（SUR）估计来检验 2007 年至 2016 年期间中国 30 个省份人均城市 REC（URECP）和人均农村 REC（RRECP）的各种决定因素的影响。然后，根据 SUR 的结果，本文试图通过使用 Shapley 值分解来探索 URECP 和 RRECP 省际差异的原因。实证结果表明，收入水平和供暖导致 URECP 增加，而天然气份额、平均温度、儿童抚养比和总抚养比等其他因素则显著降低 URECP。就 RRECP 而言，表明老年抚养比、收入水平和煤炭消费份额对 RRECP 产生积极影响，而平均温度对 RRECP 产生负面影响。特别地，总抚养比对 RRECP 的影响是正的，这表明农村地区的非劳动年龄人口比劳动年龄人口消耗更多的能源。根据 Shapley 分解，对 URECP 省际差异贡献最大的不是社会经济变量，而是气候和供暖因素。此外，研究发现，收入水平是造成 RRECP 省际差异的最重要因素。本研究的结果不仅对 REC 相关领域的学者，而且对决策者都具有重要意义。
