人口与富裕程度对二氧化碳排放的影响。
Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions.
作者信息
Dietz T, Rosa E A
机构信息
Department of Sociology and Anthropology, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA.
出版信息
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1997 Jan 7;94(1):175-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.94.1.175.
Abstract
We developed a stochastic version of the Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology (IPAT) model to estimate the effects of population, affluence, and technology on national CO2 emissions. Our results suggest that, for population, there are diseconomies of scale for the largest nations that are not consistent with the assumption of direct proportionality (log-linear effects) common to most previous research. In contrast, the effects of affluence on CO2 emissions appear to reach a maximum at about $10,000 in per- capita gross domestic product and to decline at higher levels of affluence. These results confirm the general value of the IPAT model as a starting point for understanding the anthropogenic driving forces of global change and suggest that population and economic growth anticipated over the next decade will exacerbate greenhouse gas emissions.
摘要
我们开发了一种随机版本的“影响=人口×富裕程度×技术”（IPAT）模型，以估算人口、富裕程度和技术对各国二氧化碳排放的影响。我们的结果表明，就人口而言，最大的国家存在规模不经济，这与大多数先前研究中常见的直接比例关系（对数线性效应）假设不一致。相比之下，富裕程度对二氧化碳排放的影响似乎在人均国内生产总值约为10,000美元时达到最大值，并在更高的富裕程度水平上下降。这些结果证实了IPAT模型作为理解全球变化人为驱动力起点的一般价值，并表明未来十年预期的人口和经济增长将加剧温室气体排放。
相似文献
1
Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions.人口与富裕程度对二氧化碳排放的影响。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1997 Jan 7;94(1):175-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.94.1.175.
2
Driving forces of national and regional CO emissions in China combined IPAT-E and PLS-SEM model.结合IPAT-E和PLS-SEM模型分析中国国家和区域一氧化碳排放的驱动因素
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Nov 10;690:237-247. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.370. Epub 2019 Jun 26.
3
Trends in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 1990 to 2010.1990 年至 2010 年全球温室气体排放趋势。
Environ Sci Technol. 2016 May 3;50(9):4722-30. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b06162. Epub 2016 Apr 22.
4
Political influences on greenhouse gas emissions from US states.美国各州温室气体排放的政治影响。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jul 7;112(27):8254-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1417806112. Epub 2015 Jun 15.
5
Influencing mechanism of non-CO greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation strategies of livestock sector in developed regions of eastern China: a case study of Jiangsu province.中国东部发达地区畜牧业非 CO2 温室气体排放的影响机制及减排策略——以江苏省为例。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Jun;29(26):39937-39947. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-18937-1. Epub 2022 Feb 3.
6
Extended STIRPAT model-based driving factor analysis of energy-related CO emissions in Kazakhstan.基于扩展的 STIRPAT 模型的哈萨克斯坦能源相关 CO2 排放驱动因素分析。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Jun;26(16):15920-15930. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-04951-3. Epub 2019 Apr 8.
7
Population, development, and the environment: trends and key issues in the developed countries.人口、发展与环境：发达国家的趋势及关键问题
Int J Health Serv. 1993;23(3):519-39. doi: 10.2190/TQ24-K0V6-UNHY-QBA1.
8
Evaluating the Mutual Relationship between IPAT/Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based GOSAT Fossil-Fuel CO Flux: Potential and Constraints in Utilizing Decomposed Variables.评估 IPAT/Kaya 身份指数与基于 ODIAC 的 GOSAT 化石燃料 CO 通量之间的相互关系：利用分解变量的潜力和限制。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Aug 17;17(16):5976. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17165976.
9
On strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.关于减少温室气体排放的策略。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Apr 24;98(9):4850-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.081078998. Epub 2001 Apr 10.
10
Examining the spatiotemporal variations and inequality of China's provincial CO emissions.考察中国省级 CO 排放的时空变化及其不平等性。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 May;27(14):16362-16376. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-08181-w. Epub 2020 Mar 2.
引用本文的文献
1
An examination of the decoupling effect and influential mechanisms of energy consumption and economic growth in Chinese urban areas.中国城市地区能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩效应及影响机制研究
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 25;15(1):31190. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-16262-4.
2
Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of carbon surplus and deficit under the background of carbon neutrality: a case study of Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area in China.碳中和背景下碳盈余与碳赤字的多情景模拟与预测——以中国长株潭都市圈为例
Carbon Balance Manag. 2025 Jul 18;20(1):23. doi: 10.1186/s13021-025-00314-3.
3
The effect of green technology innovation on air pollution from a quantity-quality perspective in China's large river basins.从数量-质量视角看绿色技术创新对中国大河流域空气污染的影响
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22755. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-08230-9.
4
The impact of digital economic growth and financial expansion on CO2 mitigation strategies in leading emitting countries.数字经济增长和金融扩张对主要排放国二氧化碳减排策略的影响。
Sci Rep. 2025 Mar 27;15(1):10515. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-86412-1.
5
"We are protectors, not protestors": global impacts of extractivism on human-nature bonds.“我们是保护者，而非抗议者”：资源开采主义对人与自然关系的全球影响。
Sustain Sci. 2024;19(6):1789-1808. doi: 10.1007/s11625-024-01526-1. Epub 2024 Aug 23.
6
Spatiotemporal characteristics of ecological resilience and its influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin of China.中国黄河流域生态韧性的时空特征及其影响因素
Sci Rep. 2024 Jul 23;14(1):16988. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67628-z.
7
Assessing the spillover effects of various forms of energy on CO emissions - An empirical study based on dynamic spatial Durbin model.评估各种能源形式对一氧化碳排放的溢出效应——基于动态空间杜宾模型的实证研究。
Heliyon. 2024 May 10;10(10):e31083. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e31083. eCollection 2024 May 30.
8
The influence of government ideology on the rate of e-waste recycling in the European Union countries.政府意识形态对欧盟国家电子废物回收率的影响。
PLoS One. 2024 Mar 6;19(3):e0297408. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297408. eCollection 2024.
9
Dynamic nonlinear CO2 emission effects of urbanization routes in the eight most populous countries.八大人口大国城市化路径的动态非线性 CO2 排放效应。
PLoS One. 2024 Feb 8;19(2):e0296997. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296997. eCollection 2024.
10
Exploring the nexus between fiscal decentralization and ecological sustainability: a fresh perspective from the moderating role of geopolitical risk and updated international evidence.探讨财政分权与生态可持续性之间的关系：地缘政治风险调节作用的新视角和更新的国际证据。
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Feb;31(10):15689-15715. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-31989-9. Epub 2024 Feb 2.
本文引用的文献
1
A second environmental science: human-environment interactions.第二门环境科学：人类与环境的相互作用。
Science. 1993 Jun 25;260(5116):1897-9. doi: 10.1126/science.260.5116.1897.
2
Integrated assessment of climate change.气候变化综合评估
Science. 1993 Mar 26;259(5103):1813-932. doi: 10.1126/science.259.5103.1813.
3
Population and development within the ecosphere: one view of the literature.生态圈中的人口与发展：文献综述之一
Popul Index. 1991 Spring;57(1):5-22.
4
Population policy options in the developing world.发展中世界的人口政策选择。
Science. 1994 Feb 11;263(5148):771-6. doi: 10.1126/science.8303293.
5
Impact of population growth.人口增长的影响。
Science. 1971 Mar 26;171(3977):1212-7. doi: 10.1126/science.171.3977.1212.
6
Human population and the global environment.人类人口与全球环境。
Am Sci. 1974 May-Jun;62(3):282-92.
Zotero 插件