Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo 0349, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2019 Feb;123:1-11. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2018.11.002. Epub 2018 Nov 15.
The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of passenger cars' first year of registration, weight, and age on the number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) car drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. Poisson regression models were developed of injury crashes involving passenger cars in Norway in 2000-2016, with the following predictor variables: The cars' first year of registration and weight, either crash year or car age, the drivers age and gender, and in models for car-car collisions the crash partner cars' weight and either registration year or age. The results show that there are fewer KSI car drivers in more recent, newer, and heavier cars. It is estimated that the number of KSI car drivers in all types of crashes on average decreases by 6.7% for each consecutive registration year (-7.2% in car-car collisions and -6.0% in single vehicle crashes), increases by 3.7% for each consecutive year of age (+2.1% in car-car collisions and +5.3% in single vehicle crashes), and decreases by 4.9% on average for each 100 kg weight increase (-11.1% in car-car collisions and -2.3% in single vehicle crashes). In car-car collisions there are fewer KSI car drivers when the crash partner car is more recent (-4.4% for each consecutive registration year), and more KSI car drivers when the crash partner car is older (+4.1% for each consecutive year of age), or heavier (+6.8% per 100 kg weight increase). In collisions with pedestrians or cyclists, there are fewer KSI pedestrians/cyclists when the car is more recent (-3.3% per consecutive registration year) and more KSI pedestrians/cyclists when the car is heavier (+4.6% per 100 kg weight increase). Due to the large effects of safety improvements in more recent cars, an increased renewal rate in the passenger car fleet can be expected to contribute to large safety improvements. The increasing weight of more recent cars may contribute to improved safety for those who drive heavier cars, but overall the effect of increasing weight is probably small or even negative because heavier vehicles impose greater risk on other car drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists.
本研究旨在探讨乘用车注册首年、车重和车龄对乘用车事故中司机（包括汽车司机、行人和骑自行车的人）死亡或重伤（KSI）人数的影响。我们采用泊松回归模型，对 2000 年至 2016 年期间在挪威发生的涉及乘用车的事故进行分析，其预测变量包括：汽车的注册首年和车重、事故年份或车龄、司机年龄和性别，以及在两车碰撞模型中，碰撞对方车辆的车重和注册年份或车龄。结果表明，较新、较重的乘用车中 KSI 司机人数较少。据估计，所有类型事故中 KSI 司机的人数平均减少 6.7%（两车碰撞事故中减少 7.2%，单车碰撞事故中减少 6.0%），每增加一岁增加 3.7%（两车碰撞事故中增加 2.1%，单车碰撞事故中增加 5.3%），车重每增加 100 公斤平均减少 4.9%（两车碰撞事故中减少 11.1%，单车碰撞事故中减少 2.3%）。在两车碰撞事故中，当碰撞对方车辆较新时，KSI 司机人数较少（每增加一个注册年份减少 4.4%），而当碰撞对方车辆较老或较重时，KSI 司机人数较多（每增加一岁增加 4.1%，每增加 100 公斤车重增加 6.8%）。在行人和骑自行车的人发生碰撞的事故中，当汽车较新时，KSI 行人/骑自行车者人数较少（每增加一个注册年份减少 3.3%），当汽车较重时，KSI 行人/骑自行车者人数较多（每增加 100 公斤车重增加 4.6%）。由于较新汽车的安全性能大幅提高，预计乘用车车队的更新率增加将有助于大幅提高安全性。较新汽车的重量增加可能有助于提高驾驶较重汽车的人的安全性，但总体而言，重量增加的影响可能较小，甚至可能是负面的，因为较重的车辆会给其他汽车司机、行人和骑自行车的人带来更大的风险。
