Statistical Modeling in Psychology, University of Mannheim, Germany.
Br J Math Stat Psychol. 2019 May;72(2):316-333. doi: 10.1111/bmsp.12150. Epub 2018 Nov 19.
The Savage-Dickey density ratio is a simple method for computing the Bayes factor for an equality constraint on one or more parameters of a statistical model. In regression analysis, this includes the important scenario of testing whether one or more of the covariates have an effect on the dependent variable. However, the Savage-Dickey ratio only provides the correct Bayes factor if the prior distribution of the nuisance parameters under the nested model is identical to the conditional prior under the full model given the equality constraint. This condition is violated for multiple regression models with a Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow prior, which is often used as a default prior in psychology. Besides linear regression models, the limitation of the Savage-Dickey ratio is especially relevant when analytical solutions for the Bayes factor are not available. This is the case for generalized linear models, non-linear models, or cognitive process models with regression extensions. As a remedy, the correct Bayes factor can be computed using a generalized version of the Savage-Dickey density ratio.
萨维奇-迪基密度比是一种用于计算统计模型中一个或多个参数的平等约束的贝叶斯因子的简单方法。在回归分析中,这包括检验一个或多个协变量是否对因变量有影响的重要情况。然而,只有在嵌套模型下的杂项参数的先验分布与在全模型下给定相等约束的条件先验分布相同时,萨维奇-迪基比才提供正确的贝叶斯因子。对于具有杰弗里-泽尔纳-西奥(Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow)先验的多元回归模型,这种情况会被违反,而杰弗里-泽尔纳-西奥先验通常被用作心理学中的默认先验。除了线性回归模型之外,当无法获得贝叶斯因子的解析解时,萨维奇-迪基比的局限性尤其相关。这种情况适用于广义线性模型、非线性模型或具有回归扩展的认知过程模型。作为一种补救措施,可以使用萨维奇-迪基密度比的广义版本来计算正确的贝叶斯因子。