Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2019 Oct;29(6):806-820. doi: 10.1038/s41370-018-0091-4. Epub 2018 Nov 19.
Mitigation of adverse effects of air pollution requires understanding underlying exposures, such as ambient ozone concentrations. Geostatistical approaches were employed to analyze temporal trends and estimate spatial patterns of summertime ozone concentrations for Houston, Texas, based on hourly ozone observations obtained from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. We systematically assess the accuracy of several spatial interpolation methods, comparing inverse distance weighting, simple kriging, ordinary kriging, and universal kriging methods utilizing the hourly ozone observations and meteorological measurements from monitoring sites. Model uncertainty was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Kriging methods performed better, showing greater consistency in the generated surfaces, fewer interpolation errors, and lower biases. Universal kriging did not significantly improve the interpolation results compared to ordinary kriging, and thus ordinary kriging was determined to be the optimal method, striking a balance between accuracy and simplicity. The resulting spatial patterns indicate that the more industrialized areas east and northeast of Houston exhibit the highest summertime ozone concentrations. Estimated daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration fields generated will be used to inform research on population health risks from exposure to surface ozone in Houston.
减轻空气污染的不利影响需要了解潜在的暴露情况，例如环境臭氧浓度。本研究运用地统计学方法，基于得克萨斯州环境质量委员会获得的每小时臭氧观测值，分析了德克萨斯州休斯顿市夏季臭氧浓度的时间趋势，并对其空间分布进行了估算。我们系统地评估了几种空间插值方法的准确性，比较了反距离权重法、简单克里金法、普通克里金法和泛克里金法，这些方法利用了监测站点的每小时臭氧观测值和气象测量值。通过留一交叉验证评估了模型不确定性。克里金法的表现更好，生成的曲面更一致，插值误差更少，偏差更低。与普通克里金法相比，泛克里金法并没有显著改善插值结果，因此普通克里金法被确定为最优方法，在准确性和简单性之间取得了平衡。生成的空间模式表明，休斯顿市东部和东北部工业化程度较高的地区夏季臭氧浓度最高。生成的估计日最大 8 小时臭氧浓度场将用于告知休斯顿市因接触地面臭氧而导致的人群健康风险研究。
